RealGM, citing the San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami, is reporting that Amare Stoudemire himself is expressing doubt about a trade to Golden State, and that the Warriors' chances of a trade are slim at best.
Over the past few days, rumors about the trade have shifted wildly, ranging from Amare joking that he's joining the Lakers to apparent indications that Stoudemire might be preparing to leave the Phoenix area.
The latest rumor, as reported by Kawakami, would seem to put a stop to all trade negotiations for Stoudemire by Golden State, who would never give up any significant talent for a player who is unwilling to sign a long-term extension.
Part of Amare's problem with the Warriors was supposedly his reluctance to play center. But with Ronny Turiaf and a now-seven-foot Anthony Randolph on the roster, Amare could play his prefered power forward position.
But the Warriors have never been concerned about employing a true center, and they would certainly be willing to accommodate Amare's wish if it meant signing him long-term. Stoudemire's problem with playing center would probably never become an issue.
With Andris Biedrins' exception expiring and free agency beginning, the Suns management will be under pressure to either get a deal done, keep Stoudemire for a year, or sign him to an extension. The latest rumors might either induce them to lower Stoudemire's price (since Golden State seems adamant in keeping Curry).
By saying he doesn't want a trade, Amare could simply be exerting pressure on the Suns front office to get a trade deal done faster, but to a different team. It might lead Kerr to abandon the idea of a Golden State trade altogether, and seek another trading partner such a Chicago or Atlanta.
Strangely, Amare also apparently indicated that Golden State was giving up too much to land him. It's possible that he wants to go to a contender. But the odds that a team that's in the playoff hunt would sign-and-trade him at a maximum extension rather than waiting until 2010 or trying for Chris Bosh is probably wishful thinking by Stoudemire.
If Kerr wants to get rid of Amare badly enough, will he swing the deal more towards Golden State? If Stoudemire's comments are quoted accuratedly and are sincere, Amare might be leaning towards free agency in 2010, in which case the Suns would get nothing for him.
It is equally possible, however, that Stoudemire thinks a trade to Golden State is imminent and is trying to get what he can from both sides. From Phoenix, he wants a trade before the full-blown rebuilding gets underway, so he sends out mixed signals about wanting to stay.
From Golden State's perspective, Stoudemire indicates that he wants out of Phoenix, but doesn't praise Golden State, lest they think that he's going to sign for cheap. If the Warriors want him by the Bay, they're going to have to pay deal to compensate for flaws in Golden State's system and personnel.
Amare might just be having fun with the media, but his choice of topics might indicate that not only is the deal with Golden State not dead, but that it's closer to completion that either side realizes.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Friday, June 26, 2009
Stoudemire Deal On Hold As Warriors Try To Keep Curry
When the Minnesota Timberwolves chose Jonny Flynn with the sixth pick in last night's draft, the Warriors' new General Manager was presented with a choice: forward Jordan Hill or guard Stephen Curry. Minutes later, much to the chagrin of Knicks fans at Madison Square Garden, the choice was Curry.
Hill could turn into a solid or even great player, especially for Mike D'Antoni, who will like Hill's faced-paced style and athletic ability. But Golden State was focused on a former D'Antoni forward, Amare Stoudemire.
Media outlets were in agreement for most of Friday that Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, and either Marco Belinelli or Kelenna Azubuike would be the current Warriors sent to Phoenix for Amare.
In addition to the above players, the Warriors were rumored to be sending their seventh-overall selection in the draft to the Suns. This specualtion only increased when Curry was chosen over Hill. Steve Kerr's denials of an imminent trade at first seemed to be typical of a GM who was about to trade one of his team's best players.
But later in the evening, rumors began circulating that the Warriors, having secured Curry, didn't want to part with him for an often-injured player with a reputation for selfishness. Marc Stein reconfirmed the reports this morning, and Matt Steinmetz wrote "Ws GM Larry Riley: Can't see a scenario in which Curry is traded, hopes he's a Warrior for 10 years. 'We drafted him to play here.'"
Although Riley's words could be either more smoke-and-mirrors or an attempt to placate the fans, Curry now seems to be an obstacle rather than a facilitator for the deal. But other factors, including a contract extension for Amare, are still unresolved as well. Biedrins' BYC is still in effect, so there is still plenty of time to negotiate.
If the Warriors can stand firm on keeping Curry and still acquire Stoudemire, the Warriors might be a playoff team next year. A starting lineup would likely be Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Anthony Randolph, Amare, and Ronny Turiaf. Corey Maggette would be a key sixth-man, and Curry and Anthony Morrow playing at the same time would be deadly to perimeter defenders.
Even if both sides agree to deal, will Amare be willing to accept a sign-and-trade? His point totals will no doubt increase, and Don Nelson doesn't exactly take a hard line on playing defense, but it's still not a given that Stoudemire would agree to be more than a rental, in which case the deal makes no sense.
Will Biedrins be better than Amare in three years? Even without injury issue, Andris is locked up for cheaper than an extension for an almost-twenty-seven-year-old Stoudemire would cost. And seems to be genuinely happy with the Warriors, providing a double-double on most nights. Although Shaq no doubt took some rebounds away from Amare, Stoudemire could represent a downgrade in rebounding.
Amare does provide a huge upgrade in free-throw percentage over Andris, and has had quite a few monster playoff games. And it's a good sign that, although they are no doubt executing Don Nelson's in acquiring Stoudemire, the Warriors are standing firm on Curry, and playing hardball with the Suns, who are entering a rebuilding phase.
Still, Amare is not even the best forward to possibly become a free-agent in 2010. Chris Bosh is younger, less injury-prone, and has a better attitude. A sign-and-trade for Bosh might be the Warriors' next trade attempt if the Amare deal falls through. Getting Bosh would probably require Curry and possibly other players to complete, but Bosh is more worthy of a huge deal than Amare is.
The Stoudemire deal is far from dead. And it's still possible that Curry will be included. But the Warriors' new GM has so far avoided the shortsightedness that has handicapped the franchise for the last decade. In the case of Amare, it's buyer beware, unless the price is right.
Hill could turn into a solid or even great player, especially for Mike D'Antoni, who will like Hill's faced-paced style and athletic ability. But Golden State was focused on a former D'Antoni forward, Amare Stoudemire.
Media outlets were in agreement for most of Friday that Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, and either Marco Belinelli or Kelenna Azubuike would be the current Warriors sent to Phoenix for Amare.
In addition to the above players, the Warriors were rumored to be sending their seventh-overall selection in the draft to the Suns. This specualtion only increased when Curry was chosen over Hill. Steve Kerr's denials of an imminent trade at first seemed to be typical of a GM who was about to trade one of his team's best players.
But later in the evening, rumors began circulating that the Warriors, having secured Curry, didn't want to part with him for an often-injured player with a reputation for selfishness. Marc Stein reconfirmed the reports this morning, and Matt Steinmetz wrote "Ws GM Larry Riley: Can't see a scenario in which Curry is traded, hopes he's a Warrior for 10 years. 'We drafted him to play here.'"
Although Riley's words could be either more smoke-and-mirrors or an attempt to placate the fans, Curry now seems to be an obstacle rather than a facilitator for the deal. But other factors, including a contract extension for Amare, are still unresolved as well. Biedrins' BYC is still in effect, so there is still plenty of time to negotiate.
If the Warriors can stand firm on keeping Curry and still acquire Stoudemire, the Warriors might be a playoff team next year. A starting lineup would likely be Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Anthony Randolph, Amare, and Ronny Turiaf. Corey Maggette would be a key sixth-man, and Curry and Anthony Morrow playing at the same time would be deadly to perimeter defenders.
Even if both sides agree to deal, will Amare be willing to accept a sign-and-trade? His point totals will no doubt increase, and Don Nelson doesn't exactly take a hard line on playing defense, but it's still not a given that Stoudemire would agree to be more than a rental, in which case the deal makes no sense.
Will Biedrins be better than Amare in three years? Even without injury issue, Andris is locked up for cheaper than an extension for an almost-twenty-seven-year-old Stoudemire would cost. And seems to be genuinely happy with the Warriors, providing a double-double on most nights. Although Shaq no doubt took some rebounds away from Amare, Stoudemire could represent a downgrade in rebounding.
Amare does provide a huge upgrade in free-throw percentage over Andris, and has had quite a few monster playoff games. And it's a good sign that, although they are no doubt executing Don Nelson's in acquiring Stoudemire, the Warriors are standing firm on Curry, and playing hardball with the Suns, who are entering a rebuilding phase.
Still, Amare is not even the best forward to possibly become a free-agent in 2010. Chris Bosh is younger, less injury-prone, and has a better attitude. A sign-and-trade for Bosh might be the Warriors' next trade attempt if the Amare deal falls through. Getting Bosh would probably require Curry and possibly other players to complete, but Bosh is more worthy of a huge deal than Amare is.
The Stoudemire deal is far from dead. And it's still possible that Curry will be included. But the Warriors' new GM has so far avoided the shortsightedness that has handicapped the franchise for the last decade. In the case of Amare, it's buyer beware, unless the price is right.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Lottery Mock Draft #2: How Might Trades Impact The NBA Draft?
Yesterday, the Minnesota Timberwolves agreed to send Mike Miller and Randy Foy to Washington. Oleksiy Pecherov, Etan Thomas and Darius Songaila will be sent to Minnesota, but it is Washington's fifth-overall draft pick that is causing the most excitement for NBA fans. Minnesota's trade, along with others, could create a shake-up that effects much of draft's top ten picks.
1. L.A. Clippers: Blake Griffin
Nothing will change at the top, barring a huge and unexpected trade.
2. Memphis trades the #2 overall pick to Minnesota for the #5 and #18 overall picks. Minnesota selects Ricky Rubio.
With consecutive selections in the fifth and sixth(as well as the eighteenth) slots, Minnesota is in position to be a major player on draft day, as it was last year with the Mayo-Love trade.
Ironically, it is the Memphis Grizzlies who are the targets of Minnesota's interest again this year. The eighteenth-overall pick, acquired from Miami in the 2007 Ricky Davis trade, will no doubt be packaged with either the fifth or sixth pick to entice the Grizzlies to part with their first draft choice, number two overall. Minnesota would then use the second selection to take Ricky Rubio.
Even though they'd be giving up Foye and Miller, the Wolves would be in great shape if Rubio lives up to his potential. For Hasheem Thabeet, a Wolves-Grizzlies trade could prove costly.
According to the 2009-2010 rookie pay scale, the second pick will make approximately one million dollars per year over three years than the fifth pick. How would Thabeet, once thought to be lock for the top-three, slide to fifth (or lower)?
3. Oklahoma City: James Harden
Minnesota would trade up for one reason only - Rubio, leaving Oklahoma City to decide between James Harden and Thabeet. The jury is still out on whether or not Russell Westbrook is a true point guard. But Oklahoma City might give their former number-four pick some slack and try to keep developing him at the one, considering the high draft choice they recently invested in him.
Harden would allow the Thunder to continue to field a dynamic team, and would form a formidable trio with Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Thabeet, for all the rebounding and defensive presence he would bring to the team, would probably clog the offensive flow of the Thunder as much as he would clog the middle on defense.
4. Sacramento: Tyreke Evans
Sacramento is no doubt hoping that Rubio will fall to them on draft day (the latest Draft Express mock draft somehow has Ricky falling to number five), but in this scenario it would be impossible.
There are rumors of a Francisco Garcia-Jason Thompson trade for the number two pick, but the Kings would probably be happy to take Tyreke Evans, who would form a tall back-court with Kevin Martin, especially if the team could find a taker for Beno Udrih.
5. Memphis (from Washington via Minnesota): Hasheem Thabeet
If Memphis received the fifth pick in the hypothetical trade with Minnesota, they could take Thabeet, a player they are no doubt considering at number two, at a cheaper price. If Darko Milicic is really about to be traded to the Knicks, Thabeet paired with Marc Gasol would reestablish Memphis' superior size up front.
Detroit is rumored to have some interest in Thabeet - which would make quite a bit of sense considering Thabeet could be a 7-3 Ben Wallace. But Joe Dumars might want to save trade assets for a run at forwards Paul Milsap or Carlos Boozer, instead opting to draft B.J. Mullins at the Pistons' regular draft spot.
6. Minnesota: Stephen Curry.
Having traded Foye and Miller, the Wolves will no doubt be looking for replacements for one or both. If they chose Rubio, the point guard position would be solved. Now, they could choose to replace Miller's shooting with Stephen Curry. A Rubio-Curry back-court might lack athleticism, but would still have the potential to be extremely dynamic, since Curry's touch from the outside would make it easier for Rubio to pass inside to Al Jefferson.
A trade with Knicks would be possible, in which case the Wolves might try to go with an explosive athlete like DeMar DeRozan to compliment Rubio at number eight.
7. Golden State: Jordan Hill
The Golden State Warriors are always an enigma on draft day, but the possible trade of Jamal Crawford for Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton makes predicting their 2009 draft even harder than it was a few days ago.
Claxton could be quickly turned around, as Fabricio Oberto was by the Bucks, perhaps altering the draft further, but a trade might also come after as well, especially if it's for a veteran.
Don Nelson, true to form, has thrown out many names that the Warriors are supposedly interested in. Acie Law hasn't developed into much of a player in limited action in Atlanta, but is supposedly a long-time target of Nelson. So it's possible that a point guard is officially out of the question. In this case, Jordan Hill would be a viable option.
Law, who has an expiring contract with a team option for another year at around two million dollars, is not very athletic, and might join the Marcus Williams Bench Club next season. Even if Monta Ellis is the starting point guard next season, he will need a backup, and Law is probably not a long-term solution.
Brandon Jennings would seem to be the kind of player the Warriors would seek out, as would DeMar DeRozan. And although Jennings' stock seems to be falling over the last few years and DeRozan is a wing, they would still probably be strongly considered by Golden State. Hill, though, fills a need also and placates Monta Ellis at the same time.
8. New York: Brandon Jennings
If the Knicks can't get Rubio or Curry, they could take a guard whose upside and athleticism could make him a great compliment to you-know-who. Other than Don Nelson, Mike D'Antoni runs one of the most open offenses in the league, making Jennings a good fit.
9. Toronto: DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan could become a very good defender, and can score inside from the guard position. His lack of three-point range could hurt after the Jason Kapono trade, but he excels in quite a few areas that the Raptors are lacking in.
10. Milwaukee: James Johnson
After trading Yi to the Nets last year, and now Richard Jefferson to the Spurs, Milwaukee gets a well-rounded forward who has both range and potential.
11. New Jersey: Terrence Williams
In a future, Vince-Carter-less lineup, Williams' rebounding and passing skills could lead to many fast-break opportunities for Devin Harris.
12. Charlotte: Jonny Flynn
Flynn is the same size as Allen Iverson. Larry Brown will appreciate the fact that Flynn posses the will to get the rim as A.I., and can also pass the ball when a team-mate is open. Obviously Jonny is not expected to reach Iverson's levels, but he has many traits that might help a young team get to the playoffs.
13. Indiana: DeJuan Blair
Last year's draft pick, Roy Hibbert, has height but not enough strength (yet). Blair is short for a forward, but even so, can probably grab rebounds and fight through traffic in a way that Hibbert can't.
14. Phoenix: Earl Clark
A point guard still on the board at number fourteen this year will probably be much better than one that's around at this point next year. But Jrue Holliday didn't play the point in college, and Jeff Teague turns the ball over too often to be a successor to Steve Nash.
1. L.A. Clippers: Blake Griffin
Nothing will change at the top, barring a huge and unexpected trade.
2. Memphis trades the #2 overall pick to Minnesota for the #5 and #18 overall picks. Minnesota selects Ricky Rubio.
With consecutive selections in the fifth and sixth(as well as the eighteenth) slots, Minnesota is in position to be a major player on draft day, as it was last year with the Mayo-Love trade.
Ironically, it is the Memphis Grizzlies who are the targets of Minnesota's interest again this year. The eighteenth-overall pick, acquired from Miami in the 2007 Ricky Davis trade, will no doubt be packaged with either the fifth or sixth pick to entice the Grizzlies to part with their first draft choice, number two overall. Minnesota would then use the second selection to take Ricky Rubio.
Even though they'd be giving up Foye and Miller, the Wolves would be in great shape if Rubio lives up to his potential. For Hasheem Thabeet, a Wolves-Grizzlies trade could prove costly.
According to the 2009-2010 rookie pay scale, the second pick will make approximately one million dollars per year over three years than the fifth pick. How would Thabeet, once thought to be lock for the top-three, slide to fifth (or lower)?
3. Oklahoma City: James Harden
Minnesota would trade up for one reason only - Rubio, leaving Oklahoma City to decide between James Harden and Thabeet. The jury is still out on whether or not Russell Westbrook is a true point guard. But Oklahoma City might give their former number-four pick some slack and try to keep developing him at the one, considering the high draft choice they recently invested in him.
Harden would allow the Thunder to continue to field a dynamic team, and would form a formidable trio with Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Thabeet, for all the rebounding and defensive presence he would bring to the team, would probably clog the offensive flow of the Thunder as much as he would clog the middle on defense.
4. Sacramento: Tyreke Evans
Sacramento is no doubt hoping that Rubio will fall to them on draft day (the latest Draft Express mock draft somehow has Ricky falling to number five), but in this scenario it would be impossible.
There are rumors of a Francisco Garcia-Jason Thompson trade for the number two pick, but the Kings would probably be happy to take Tyreke Evans, who would form a tall back-court with Kevin Martin, especially if the team could find a taker for Beno Udrih.
5. Memphis (from Washington via Minnesota): Hasheem Thabeet
If Memphis received the fifth pick in the hypothetical trade with Minnesota, they could take Thabeet, a player they are no doubt considering at number two, at a cheaper price. If Darko Milicic is really about to be traded to the Knicks, Thabeet paired with Marc Gasol would reestablish Memphis' superior size up front.
Detroit is rumored to have some interest in Thabeet - which would make quite a bit of sense considering Thabeet could be a 7-3 Ben Wallace. But Joe Dumars might want to save trade assets for a run at forwards Paul Milsap or Carlos Boozer, instead opting to draft B.J. Mullins at the Pistons' regular draft spot.
6. Minnesota: Stephen Curry.
Having traded Foye and Miller, the Wolves will no doubt be looking for replacements for one or both. If they chose Rubio, the point guard position would be solved. Now, they could choose to replace Miller's shooting with Stephen Curry. A Rubio-Curry back-court might lack athleticism, but would still have the potential to be extremely dynamic, since Curry's touch from the outside would make it easier for Rubio to pass inside to Al Jefferson.
A trade with Knicks would be possible, in which case the Wolves might try to go with an explosive athlete like DeMar DeRozan to compliment Rubio at number eight.
7. Golden State: Jordan Hill
The Golden State Warriors are always an enigma on draft day, but the possible trade of Jamal Crawford for Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton makes predicting their 2009 draft even harder than it was a few days ago.
Claxton could be quickly turned around, as Fabricio Oberto was by the Bucks, perhaps altering the draft further, but a trade might also come after as well, especially if it's for a veteran.
Don Nelson, true to form, has thrown out many names that the Warriors are supposedly interested in. Acie Law hasn't developed into much of a player in limited action in Atlanta, but is supposedly a long-time target of Nelson. So it's possible that a point guard is officially out of the question. In this case, Jordan Hill would be a viable option.
Law, who has an expiring contract with a team option for another year at around two million dollars, is not very athletic, and might join the Marcus Williams Bench Club next season. Even if Monta Ellis is the starting point guard next season, he will need a backup, and Law is probably not a long-term solution.
Brandon Jennings would seem to be the kind of player the Warriors would seek out, as would DeMar DeRozan. And although Jennings' stock seems to be falling over the last few years and DeRozan is a wing, they would still probably be strongly considered by Golden State. Hill, though, fills a need also and placates Monta Ellis at the same time.
8. New York: Brandon Jennings
If the Knicks can't get Rubio or Curry, they could take a guard whose upside and athleticism could make him a great compliment to you-know-who. Other than Don Nelson, Mike D'Antoni runs one of the most open offenses in the league, making Jennings a good fit.
9. Toronto: DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan could become a very good defender, and can score inside from the guard position. His lack of three-point range could hurt after the Jason Kapono trade, but he excels in quite a few areas that the Raptors are lacking in.
10. Milwaukee: James Johnson
After trading Yi to the Nets last year, and now Richard Jefferson to the Spurs, Milwaukee gets a well-rounded forward who has both range and potential.
11. New Jersey: Terrence Williams
In a future, Vince-Carter-less lineup, Williams' rebounding and passing skills could lead to many fast-break opportunities for Devin Harris.
12. Charlotte: Jonny Flynn
Flynn is the same size as Allen Iverson. Larry Brown will appreciate the fact that Flynn posses the will to get the rim as A.I., and can also pass the ball when a team-mate is open. Obviously Jonny is not expected to reach Iverson's levels, but he has many traits that might help a young team get to the playoffs.
13. Indiana: DeJuan Blair
Last year's draft pick, Roy Hibbert, has height but not enough strength (yet). Blair is short for a forward, but even so, can probably grab rebounds and fight through traffic in a way that Hibbert can't.
14. Phoenix: Earl Clark
A point guard still on the board at number fourteen this year will probably be much better than one that's around at this point next year. But Jrue Holliday didn't play the point in college, and Jeff Teague turns the ball over too often to be a successor to Steve Nash.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Posey To AAA, Bumgarner To Majors?
Giants General Manager Brian Sabean has confirmed that Buster Posey will soon be promoted from Class-A San Jose, according to Jeff Fletcher and Henry Schulman. Posey, last year's number one draft pick, received a franchise-record $6.5 million signing bonus.
According to Sabean, the Giants wanted Posey to remain in A-ball for the entire first half of the season to work on his catching skills. The first half concluded on Sunday, with San Jose winning a record fifth-straight title. Andrew Baggerly reports that the Giants laid out this plan for Posey back in Spirng Training.
Now, says Sabean, Posey needs to catch higher-level pitchers to take the next step towards the majors. The GM noted that a jump to AAA would allow Posey to improve faster. In addition, the starting catcher in AA would lose his starting job to Posey if Buster moved up only one level. If Buster went to AAA immediately, both catchers could develop at their own paces.
Posey has definitely not disappointed in his first extended action in the minors, hitting twenty doubles and eleven home runs in the first half. His batting average is a steady .328, while his OPS is .970, about the same as his sophomore season at Florida State.
Extremely encouraging is Posey's thirty-six walks and only thirty-nine strike-outs. Angel Villalona has nine walks and fifty-eight K's, while Roger Kieschnick's totals are twelve and sixty-eight. Conner Gillaspe, the best contact hitter on the team, has more walks than strike-outs, but has only one home run.
Despite the possibility of a rapid promotion, Posey will not reach the majors this season. However, Fletcher and Baggerly note that Madison Bumgarner is due for a promotion, and that Sabean mentioned him "skipping a level."
This wording could be interpreted as meaning that Madison would be skipping AAA altogether. Sabean noted that But it might make more sense to have a Bumgarner-Posey battery start in the minors before promoting both of them in early 2010. And Sabean noted that while Madison's fastball was major-league quality, his secondary pitches need work.
Whether or not Bumgarner or Posey skip levels of minor league ball, they will be one step closer to the majors, the goal for Giants players, management, and fans alike.
According to Sabean, the Giants wanted Posey to remain in A-ball for the entire first half of the season to work on his catching skills. The first half concluded on Sunday, with San Jose winning a record fifth-straight title. Andrew Baggerly reports that the Giants laid out this plan for Posey back in Spirng Training.
Now, says Sabean, Posey needs to catch higher-level pitchers to take the next step towards the majors. The GM noted that a jump to AAA would allow Posey to improve faster. In addition, the starting catcher in AA would lose his starting job to Posey if Buster moved up only one level. If Buster went to AAA immediately, both catchers could develop at their own paces.
Posey has definitely not disappointed in his first extended action in the minors, hitting twenty doubles and eleven home runs in the first half. His batting average is a steady .328, while his OPS is .970, about the same as his sophomore season at Florida State.
Extremely encouraging is Posey's thirty-six walks and only thirty-nine strike-outs. Angel Villalona has nine walks and fifty-eight K's, while Roger Kieschnick's totals are twelve and sixty-eight. Conner Gillaspe, the best contact hitter on the team, has more walks than strike-outs, but has only one home run.
Despite the possibility of a rapid promotion, Posey will not reach the majors this season. However, Fletcher and Baggerly note that Madison Bumgarner is due for a promotion, and that Sabean mentioned him "skipping a level."
This wording could be interpreted as meaning that Madison would be skipping AAA altogether. Sabean noted that But it might make more sense to have a Bumgarner-Posey battery start in the minors before promoting both of them in early 2010. And Sabean noted that while Madison's fastball was major-league quality, his secondary pitches need work.
Whether or not Bumgarner or Posey skip levels of minor league ball, they will be one step closer to the majors, the goal for Giants players, management, and fans alike.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Rafael Rodriguez, 2008's Angel Villalona, Debuts For AZL Giants
Rafael Rodriguez, the Dominican outfielder signed last July by San Francisco for a franchise-record $2.55 million, played in his first Arizona League game on Sunday.
Rodriguez recorded only one hit in six plate appearances, an RBI single in his first at-bat, but showed his skill in other areas. In the bottom of the first inning, Rafael prevented a one-out-runner-at-third situation for his pitcher by recording an outfield assist. And after reaching on a fielder's choice in the tenth, Rodriguez recorded his first career stolen base.
The six-foot-five prospect, who will turn seventeen in July and is the youngest player on the AZL Giants' roster, also made some mistakes. He was caught stealing after his only hit, and was thrown out at home trying to score the go-ahead run from second on a single in the tenth inning. But after all, it was only a rookie league game.
Second-baseman Julio Izturis, a 2006 signee from Venezuela, also made his U.S. debut for the Giants, collecting four hits (including a double) and a run in seven at-bats in the lead-off slot. He also stole two bases. Izturis is the brother of major leaguer Maicer Izturis (Angels). Julio's half-brother Cesar Izturis (Orioles) also plays the infield in the big leagues.
The starting pitcher for the Giants was a name familiar to fans of San Francisco's big league club. Joe Martinez, who was lucky to escape serious injury when he was stuck in the head with a line drive in April, was pitching in a rehab assignment. Martinez allowed three earned runs in two and two-thirds innings of work.
Rodriguez recorded only one hit in six plate appearances, an RBI single in his first at-bat, but showed his skill in other areas. In the bottom of the first inning, Rafael prevented a one-out-runner-at-third situation for his pitcher by recording an outfield assist. And after reaching on a fielder's choice in the tenth, Rodriguez recorded his first career stolen base.
The six-foot-five prospect, who will turn seventeen in July and is the youngest player on the AZL Giants' roster, also made some mistakes. He was caught stealing after his only hit, and was thrown out at home trying to score the go-ahead run from second on a single in the tenth inning. But after all, it was only a rookie league game.
Second-baseman Julio Izturis, a 2006 signee from Venezuela, also made his U.S. debut for the Giants, collecting four hits (including a double) and a run in seven at-bats in the lead-off slot. He also stole two bases. Izturis is the brother of major leaguer Maicer Izturis (Angels). Julio's half-brother Cesar Izturis (Orioles) also plays the infield in the big leagues.
The starting pitcher for the Giants was a name familiar to fans of San Francisco's big league club. Joe Martinez, who was lucky to escape serious injury when he was stuck in the head with a line drive in April, was pitching in a rehab assignment. Martinez allowed three earned runs in two and two-thirds innings of work.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Point-Guard-Gate: Monta's Power Grab Or Draft Ruse?
In normal circumstances, teams that are looking forward to the draft don't have to worry about players they signed to a long extension less than a year earlier. But when the team is the Golden State Warriors and the player is Monta Ellis, all bets are off.
On Tuesday, reports came out that a meeting had taken place between new Golden State GM Larry Riley, Don Nelson, and Ellis. In this meeting, Ellis was supposedly promised that the Warriors would not draft a point guard in the upcoming draft.
By Thursday, Monta was declaring that he wanted to be Warrior for the rest of his career, and Golden State management was busy talking about how Ellis wasn't a problem.
According to Ellis' agent: “The GM and the coach traveled to Memphis to further provide that assurance to Monta that this is his team and they’re looking to build this team around him for years to come . . . [His] response to them was that the most important component is winning. He wants to win and he wants to win with the Warriors.”
Typical of agent-speak, the quote potentially provides support for those on all sides of the point guard issue.
Fans who believe that Monta should stay on the team - but as a shooting guard - will point to the fact that a shooting guard is often the center of the team. Although Monta is not Kobe or Jordan, he might become a consistent all-star in the not-so-distant future. As a feature of the offense. Monta would still handle the ball on almost every possession, he just wouldn't be passing the ball from the point guard position.
In some cases, what would be good from Monta's perspective would also help the franchise as a whole. Trading the shot-hogging Corey Maggette, for example would result in more touches not only for Ellis, but for the entire team.
Monta playing the point is not one of them.
Below is an excerpt from a scouting report on Ellis from 2005 (predicting either a late first-round or early-second round selection of Ellis in the draft):
"His main draw is the fact that he's an outstanding athlete, being extremely quick and smooth in the open floor with a dynamite first step. He gets into the lane . . . whenever he pleases, elevating off one foot in the lane and hanging to finish fearlessly and creatively at the basket. He is very quick off his feet.
. . . [But] AAU ball has basically left him no grasp or comprehension of team basketball or fundamentals, and he probably wouldn't understand what's wrong with that if you tried to explain it to him . . .
His biggest problem for the short and possibly long term is that he has no NBA position. He's a 6-3 SG with absolutely no PG skills whatsoever . . . The concept of running set plays is completely foreign to him, not being capable of doing anything in a half-court offense at this point except create his own shot off the dribble or drive and dish after drawing a crowd . . .
Ellis has consistently shown a poor attitude and immaturity, pouting when things don't go his way or when the ball isn't in his hands for more than 5 seconds. He refused to shake anyone's hand at the end of the [2005] McDonalds [High-School All-American] game, because he was mad at his coach for not giving him more minutes at the PG spot . . ." (DraftExpress)
The Warriors knew who they were getting in Ellis: a player that had a chance to be superstar in the league, but was a project. In the second round, those types of players are all a GM can hope for. Complete-package superstars almost never fall out of the lottery, let alone the first round. Even supporters of Monta playing the one would agree that Ellis should work more on improving his game, and worry less about his role on the team.
Anthony Randolph was also a risk, and has had his maturity issues as well. But Randolph has adapted well to Don Nelson's system, and is spending the off-season improving his game by hitting the gym. "I'm learning when and where to do things . . . and how to put the ball on the floor as little as possible to get where I need to go," Randolph was quoted as saying earlier this week. No mopeds in sight.
Ellis' main fault (on the court) is that he wants to be a point guard. League scouts and GM's know this. Whether or not Monta demanded that the organization not draft a point guard, the issue needs to be addressed. If Baron Davis was still on the team, Monta would be a shooting guard - a highly-successful one. The only reason why Monta handled the ball more last season was that Jamal Crawford is not a pure point guard either.
Ellis needs to realize that if he's going to retire a Warrior, he should get used to having the ball passed to him, not trying to be a distributor. If Don Nelson lets him get away with some point-guard duties now, the next coach (hopefully) won't.
Conspiracy theorists will note that denials and assurances similar to those by Ellis and the Warriors' brass have taken place just before major trades throughout NBA history, including the Jason Richardson-for-Brandan Wright deal.
Trading Ellis is not the answer, however, unless the rumors that Toronto is going to sign-and-trade Chris Bosh are true. Ellis can become a star shooting guard, especially if teamed with a tall point guard who can help him defend wings and long guards.
Recent mock drafts, however, suggest that Tyreke Evans could be drafted in the five-to-seven range (possibly even at four by the Kings if Rubio is gone), leaving the Warriors with a choice between point guards Jrue Holliday and Stephen Curry, forwards Terrence Williams and Jordan Hill, and wing DeMar DeRozan. In this case, unless Golden State trades down, large segments of the fan base will likely be upset.
Ironically, this scenario would allow Monta to continue his case for point guard duties, unless Williams was used a point-forward.
If Golden State selects Hill or DeRozan, those who believe that Monta now controls the team will no doubt contend that Golden State's management has caved in by not taking a point guard. But Hill could be the best player on the board by the time the Warriors draft. Jordan would bring rebounding and inside scoring, which is needed on any team hoping to compete in the Western Conference.
Some scouts (and no doubt some teams) regard Hill as one of the top talents in the draft, regardless of position, and if he lived up to his potential, Jordan could help appease both the fan-base and Monta by helping Golden State win games.
But even a value pick has risks. The 2010 draft looks to be as loaded with forwards as the 2009 draft is with point guards. Ed Davis, Cole Aldrich, Derrick Favors, or even Greg Monroe (if he dramatically improves) or DeMarcus Cousins could all turn out to be better than Hill, who is already twenty-one.
In that case, missing out on a point guard (even a risk such as Brandon Jennings) to take Hill would not reflect well on the Warrior's new GM. And Warriors fans aren't likely to forget that Monta's fellow 2005 draftee, Ike Diogu, was the last Pac-10 power forward picked by the organization.
Don Nelson is well-known for his draft-related smoke-screens. And a new GM who was apparently appointed to continue the status quo isn't likely to begin his tenure by trading an important piece of the team's core. But there is more than enough futility and poor decisions in the franchise's past to make Golden State's fans at least a little skeptical of the front office's intentions. Hopefully, the Warriors still intend to finally move on from the post-Baron era and find the next point guard who will lead them to the playoffs.
On Tuesday, reports came out that a meeting had taken place between new Golden State GM Larry Riley, Don Nelson, and Ellis. In this meeting, Ellis was supposedly promised that the Warriors would not draft a point guard in the upcoming draft.
By Thursday, Monta was declaring that he wanted to be Warrior for the rest of his career, and Golden State management was busy talking about how Ellis wasn't a problem.
According to Ellis' agent: “The GM and the coach traveled to Memphis to further provide that assurance to Monta that this is his team and they’re looking to build this team around him for years to come . . . [His] response to them was that the most important component is winning. He wants to win and he wants to win with the Warriors.”
Typical of agent-speak, the quote potentially provides support for those on all sides of the point guard issue.
Fans who believe that Monta should stay on the team - but as a shooting guard - will point to the fact that a shooting guard is often the center of the team. Although Monta is not Kobe or Jordan, he might become a consistent all-star in the not-so-distant future. As a feature of the offense. Monta would still handle the ball on almost every possession, he just wouldn't be passing the ball from the point guard position.
In some cases, what would be good from Monta's perspective would also help the franchise as a whole. Trading the shot-hogging Corey Maggette, for example would result in more touches not only for Ellis, but for the entire team.
Monta playing the point is not one of them.
Below is an excerpt from a scouting report on Ellis from 2005 (predicting either a late first-round or early-second round selection of Ellis in the draft):
"His main draw is the fact that he's an outstanding athlete, being extremely quick and smooth in the open floor with a dynamite first step. He gets into the lane . . . whenever he pleases, elevating off one foot in the lane and hanging to finish fearlessly and creatively at the basket. He is very quick off his feet.
. . . [But] AAU ball has basically left him no grasp or comprehension of team basketball or fundamentals, and he probably wouldn't understand what's wrong with that if you tried to explain it to him . . .
His biggest problem for the short and possibly long term is that he has no NBA position. He's a 6-3 SG with absolutely no PG skills whatsoever . . . The concept of running set plays is completely foreign to him, not being capable of doing anything in a half-court offense at this point except create his own shot off the dribble or drive and dish after drawing a crowd . . .
Ellis has consistently shown a poor attitude and immaturity, pouting when things don't go his way or when the ball isn't in his hands for more than 5 seconds. He refused to shake anyone's hand at the end of the [2005] McDonalds [High-School All-American] game, because he was mad at his coach for not giving him more minutes at the PG spot . . ." (DraftExpress)
The Warriors knew who they were getting in Ellis: a player that had a chance to be superstar in the league, but was a project. In the second round, those types of players are all a GM can hope for. Complete-package superstars almost never fall out of the lottery, let alone the first round. Even supporters of Monta playing the one would agree that Ellis should work more on improving his game, and worry less about his role on the team.
Anthony Randolph was also a risk, and has had his maturity issues as well. But Randolph has adapted well to Don Nelson's system, and is spending the off-season improving his game by hitting the gym. "I'm learning when and where to do things . . . and how to put the ball on the floor as little as possible to get where I need to go," Randolph was quoted as saying earlier this week. No mopeds in sight.
Ellis' main fault (on the court) is that he wants to be a point guard. League scouts and GM's know this. Whether or not Monta demanded that the organization not draft a point guard, the issue needs to be addressed. If Baron Davis was still on the team, Monta would be a shooting guard - a highly-successful one. The only reason why Monta handled the ball more last season was that Jamal Crawford is not a pure point guard either.
Ellis needs to realize that if he's going to retire a Warrior, he should get used to having the ball passed to him, not trying to be a distributor. If Don Nelson lets him get away with some point-guard duties now, the next coach (hopefully) won't.
Conspiracy theorists will note that denials and assurances similar to those by Ellis and the Warriors' brass have taken place just before major trades throughout NBA history, including the Jason Richardson-for-Brandan Wright deal.
Trading Ellis is not the answer, however, unless the rumors that Toronto is going to sign-and-trade Chris Bosh are true. Ellis can become a star shooting guard, especially if teamed with a tall point guard who can help him defend wings and long guards.
Recent mock drafts, however, suggest that Tyreke Evans could be drafted in the five-to-seven range (possibly even at four by the Kings if Rubio is gone), leaving the Warriors with a choice between point guards Jrue Holliday and Stephen Curry, forwards Terrence Williams and Jordan Hill, and wing DeMar DeRozan. In this case, unless Golden State trades down, large segments of the fan base will likely be upset.
Ironically, this scenario would allow Monta to continue his case for point guard duties, unless Williams was used a point-forward.
If Golden State selects Hill or DeRozan, those who believe that Monta now controls the team will no doubt contend that Golden State's management has caved in by not taking a point guard. But Hill could be the best player on the board by the time the Warriors draft. Jordan would bring rebounding and inside scoring, which is needed on any team hoping to compete in the Western Conference.
Some scouts (and no doubt some teams) regard Hill as one of the top talents in the draft, regardless of position, and if he lived up to his potential, Jordan could help appease both the fan-base and Monta by helping Golden State win games.
But even a value pick has risks. The 2010 draft looks to be as loaded with forwards as the 2009 draft is with point guards. Ed Davis, Cole Aldrich, Derrick Favors, or even Greg Monroe (if he dramatically improves) or DeMarcus Cousins could all turn out to be better than Hill, who is already twenty-one.
In that case, missing out on a point guard (even a risk such as Brandon Jennings) to take Hill would not reflect well on the Warrior's new GM. And Warriors fans aren't likely to forget that Monta's fellow 2005 draftee, Ike Diogu, was the last Pac-10 power forward picked by the organization.
Don Nelson is well-known for his draft-related smoke-screens. And a new GM who was apparently appointed to continue the status quo isn't likely to begin his tenure by trading an important piece of the team's core. But there is more than enough futility and poor decisions in the franchise's past to make Golden State's fans at least a little skeptical of the front office's intentions. Hopefully, the Warriors still intend to finally move on from the post-Baron era and find the next point guard who will lead them to the playoffs.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Matt Cain Provides One More Reason Why He Shouldn't Be Traded
Not to be out-done by Tim Lincecum's complete game on Friday, Matt Cain threw one of his own two days later in a 7-1 victory that capped off a sweep of the Oakland A's in style. After giving up a first inning home run to Jack Cust, Cain threw eight innings of three-hit ball the rest of the way. In the ninth, Cain was still sharp, retiring Cust and Matt Holliday before striking out Jason Giambi to end the game.
Although Randy Johnson has pitched after Tim Lincecum for most of the season, Cain has proven to be the true number-two starter for the Giants in 2009.
Despite his gaudy record this year, Cain has traditionally been a poster-boy for why the Giants need more hitting. He lost two-thirds of his decisions from 2007 to 2008. In 2007, he endured sixteen losses despite an ERA that would have ranked him as the top pitcher on half of the team in the major leagues.
This year, Cain has had increased run support, but has also posted a career-low in ERA. In fact, his ERA of 2.55 is fourth in the National League, slightly ahead of the 2.66 Lincecum has posted.
Cain is tied with Chad Billingsley for the N.L. wins lead (Matt has started one fewer game than Chad and has two fewer losses), and although he won't threaten for the strikeout crown like Lincecum will, Matt has K'd a respectable sixty-eight on the season, good enough for fifteenth in the National League. His WHIP of 1.28 also ranks fifteenth.
Cain has had issues with walks, which helps to account for his high Opponent's On Base Percentage (.331 - a career high). And his Opponent's Batting Average (.254) is at a career high as well But his pitches per inning in 2009 (16.1) is at career low. However, Matt is still estimated to have a value of $4.6 million so far this season, on pace for around $14-15 million. By comparison, Lincecum's Cy Young season was valued at around $32 million.
So does this mean that Cain is half the pitcher Lincecum is? Maybe, since Lincecum's strikeout-to-walk ratio has increased from around three last season to around four this year, while some of Cain's important stats have become worse over the last few years.
For a stats perspective, it looks like Cain is getting somewhat lucky this season (not that he doesn't deserve it after the last few years he's endured), and might have peaked as a player. But that doesn't mean he isn't valuable to the organization, and should be traded for a thirty-something bat.
Even if the temptation is there to trade for hitting to stay in the Wild Card, it would be a mistake to get rid of Cain for a bat, even though Matt would command much more than Jonathan Sanchez. With Cain out of the rotation, an inexperienced pitcher (Kevin Pucetas?) or a pitcher not deemed to be worthy of a spot at the beginning of the season could be promoted into the major league rotation. This might negate the effect of a big bat, who could be walked anyway.
The odds of Pucetas or even Madison Bumgarner replacing Cain's production this season are not large. Bumgarner, who is more talented than Pucetas and has the potential to surpass Cain's production within a year or two in the big leagues, has never pitched beyond the AA level.
David Price provided a precedent last year for rapid promotion of a pitcher into a pressure situation, but Price was a college pitcher, and was used in relief. This year, he started the season in AAA before hearing the call to start at the big league level. Even Lincecum, after rocketing through the minors, had an ERA around 4.00 in his first season in the big leagues. Bumgarner will be twenty in August, two years younger than Price.
Next year, Randy Johnson will no longer be in the rotation and, unfortunately, Noah Lowry's injury-marred tenure with the Giants appears to be over. Tim Alderson and Bumgarner will eventually fill those two slots in the rotation, but a Cain trade would break a future rotation in which Matt would potentially be fourth.
The best Cain trade scenarios for the Giants might be to acquire two decent major league hitters (hopefully with power) or two or more prospects (one hitting, one pitching). But this assumes that Cain is being sold at his peak value. If Cain doesn't decline over the next few years, there's little reason not to keep him while he's signed fairly cheaply. In 2007, the Giants believed enough in Cain to sign him to an extension. Unless the deal is decidedly in the Giants' favor, Brian Sabean should think twice, especially after the A.J. Pierzynski deal and the Lincecum-For-Rios near-faisco.
Jonathan Sanchez, on the other hand, is above the league average in ERA and WHIP. He could probably be replaced by a AAA pitcher or a top prospect like Bumgarner, and the Giants wouldn't suffer than greatly. Jonathan could be valuable as a reliever, even if he was eventually replaced in the rotation by Bumgarner or Pucetas). But if the Giants could get a bat with him, even if it's a flawed one, it might be worth it.
San Francisco's glory years were highlighted by great hitters, as well as solid pitching. But the two most recent World Series teams featured fearsome pairs of power hitters (Will Clark and Kevin Mitchell in 1989, and Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent in 2002). Instead of intimidating power hitters, the 2009 Giants have the potential for a dominant rotation. Unlike Sanchez, Cain could potentially play a signinficant role in that rotation.
Not many third or fourth starters on any rotation in the league can match Cain's stuff, and Matt is young enough to not only contribute in 2009 along-side Lincecum, but in the future with Bumgarner and Alderson. Cain may not be a super-star, but he should still have a firm place in the Giants' rotation, not on the trading block.
Although Randy Johnson has pitched after Tim Lincecum for most of the season, Cain has proven to be the true number-two starter for the Giants in 2009.
Despite his gaudy record this year, Cain has traditionally been a poster-boy for why the Giants need more hitting. He lost two-thirds of his decisions from 2007 to 2008. In 2007, he endured sixteen losses despite an ERA that would have ranked him as the top pitcher on half of the team in the major leagues.
This year, Cain has had increased run support, but has also posted a career-low in ERA. In fact, his ERA of 2.55 is fourth in the National League, slightly ahead of the 2.66 Lincecum has posted.
Cain is tied with Chad Billingsley for the N.L. wins lead (Matt has started one fewer game than Chad and has two fewer losses), and although he won't threaten for the strikeout crown like Lincecum will, Matt has K'd a respectable sixty-eight on the season, good enough for fifteenth in the National League. His WHIP of 1.28 also ranks fifteenth.
Cain has had issues with walks, which helps to account for his high Opponent's On Base Percentage (.331 - a career high). And his Opponent's Batting Average (.254) is at a career high as well But his pitches per inning in 2009 (16.1) is at career low. However, Matt is still estimated to have a value of $4.6 million so far this season, on pace for around $14-15 million. By comparison, Lincecum's Cy Young season was valued at around $32 million.
So does this mean that Cain is half the pitcher Lincecum is? Maybe, since Lincecum's strikeout-to-walk ratio has increased from around three last season to around four this year, while some of Cain's important stats have become worse over the last few years.
For a stats perspective, it looks like Cain is getting somewhat lucky this season (not that he doesn't deserve it after the last few years he's endured), and might have peaked as a player. But that doesn't mean he isn't valuable to the organization, and should be traded for a thirty-something bat.
Even if the temptation is there to trade for hitting to stay in the Wild Card, it would be a mistake to get rid of Cain for a bat, even though Matt would command much more than Jonathan Sanchez. With Cain out of the rotation, an inexperienced pitcher (Kevin Pucetas?) or a pitcher not deemed to be worthy of a spot at the beginning of the season could be promoted into the major league rotation. This might negate the effect of a big bat, who could be walked anyway.
The odds of Pucetas or even Madison Bumgarner replacing Cain's production this season are not large. Bumgarner, who is more talented than Pucetas and has the potential to surpass Cain's production within a year or two in the big leagues, has never pitched beyond the AA level.
David Price provided a precedent last year for rapid promotion of a pitcher into a pressure situation, but Price was a college pitcher, and was used in relief. This year, he started the season in AAA before hearing the call to start at the big league level. Even Lincecum, after rocketing through the minors, had an ERA around 4.00 in his first season in the big leagues. Bumgarner will be twenty in August, two years younger than Price.
Next year, Randy Johnson will no longer be in the rotation and, unfortunately, Noah Lowry's injury-marred tenure with the Giants appears to be over. Tim Alderson and Bumgarner will eventually fill those two slots in the rotation, but a Cain trade would break a future rotation in which Matt would potentially be fourth.
The best Cain trade scenarios for the Giants might be to acquire two decent major league hitters (hopefully with power) or two or more prospects (one hitting, one pitching). But this assumes that Cain is being sold at his peak value. If Cain doesn't decline over the next few years, there's little reason not to keep him while he's signed fairly cheaply. In 2007, the Giants believed enough in Cain to sign him to an extension. Unless the deal is decidedly in the Giants' favor, Brian Sabean should think twice, especially after the A.J. Pierzynski deal and the Lincecum-For-Rios near-faisco.
Jonathan Sanchez, on the other hand, is above the league average in ERA and WHIP. He could probably be replaced by a AAA pitcher or a top prospect like Bumgarner, and the Giants wouldn't suffer than greatly. Jonathan could be valuable as a reliever, even if he was eventually replaced in the rotation by Bumgarner or Pucetas). But if the Giants could get a bat with him, even if it's a flawed one, it might be worth it.
San Francisco's glory years were highlighted by great hitters, as well as solid pitching. But the two most recent World Series teams featured fearsome pairs of power hitters (Will Clark and Kevin Mitchell in 1989, and Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent in 2002). Instead of intimidating power hitters, the 2009 Giants have the potential for a dominant rotation. Unlike Sanchez, Cain could potentially play a signinficant role in that rotation.
Not many third or fourth starters on any rotation in the league can match Cain's stuff, and Matt is young enough to not only contribute in 2009 along-side Lincecum, but in the future with Bumgarner and Alderson. Cain may not be a super-star, but he should still have a firm place in the Giants' rotation, not on the trading block.
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