For fans of Duke, Butler, Michigan State, and West Virginia, reaching the 2010 Final Four was a great accomplishment. However, only one of the four would ultimately triumph, with sentimental favorite Butler losing a nail-biter to traditional power Duke.
As of May 27th, Golden State Warrior fans have a new Final Four: the list of potential candidates for ownership of the franchise has been narrowed from twelve to under a hand-full.
And while the underdog is often the media (and fan) darling of the NCAA's, many Warriors fans will no doubt root for the Goliath in this contest: Larry Ellison.
According to the article at Sports Illustrated, Ellison is the only finalist that has been named so far.
Also encouraging is the fact that final bids could be submitted in "nearly a month" (before the draft). However, the final might not take place until "the end of the summer."
All in all, though, it's good news that the sale is at least progressing. If Ellison (or Mark Mastrov) wins this Final Four, the Warriors franchise and fans will have had a successful off-season.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Could a three-way trade help the Warriors move up in the draft?
With rumors circulating that the Philadelphia 76ers might be willing to trade down from the number two spot in this year's draft, it's natural to speculate on a possible trade that would net the Warriors the pick.
However, it would not be easy, since Philadelphia has indicated that any trade would have to include the albatross contract of Elton Brand. Below is a trade that functions as a salary dump, but by involving a third team, solves some needs as well.
Warriors receive: Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, Sam Dalembert (expiring), #2 pick (2010 - from Philly)
76ers receive: Corey Maggette, O.J. Mayo, Andris Biedrins, Zach Randolph (expiring), Ronny Turiaf, #12 pick (2010 - from Memphis), #25 or #28 pick (2010 -from Memphis), future first round pick (from Golden State - top-three protected for a few years)
Grizzlies receive: Monta Ellis, Brandon Wright, #6 pick (2010 - from Golden State), Kelenna Azubuike or Anthony Morrow (sign-and-trade)
The Warriors' starting lineup would look something like this (assuming Evan Turner went second):
Stephen Curry
Andre Iguodala/Evan Turner
Andre Iguodala/Evan Turner
Anthony Randolph/ Elton Brand
Anthony Tolliver/Sam Dalembert
If Wall fell to the second spot, Iguodala would play at the three full-time. Center would be a massive hole in the lineup, but that wouldn't be a new situation for the Warriors. Dalembert is not a good fit in the high-speed Warriors offense, but as an expiring contract, he wouldn't around long anyway. Similarly, Brand probably wouldn't block Randolph in most situations because Elton isn't as good of a fit. However, both Brand and Dalembert would be more useful against teams such as the Lakers or Spurs.
The Warriors would still have Vlad Radmanovich's $6 million-plus expiring, combining with Dalembert's contract to create a very attractive sign-and-trade package for a big man. They also keep Anthony Randolph to see if he can take the next step and become a star. If not, the cap could be use to help fill out the roster with decent front-court and bench. players And, of course, Curry and Turner or Curry and Wall would both be formidable duos for years to come.
Besides, the Warriors need stars to catch up in future Western Conference playoff races. Turner/Wall could be one, and Iguodala, while not a superstar, would bring defense and versatility to the wing position. The Warriors are not going to contend overnight, and by the time Iggy's and Brand's contracts would be expiring, the young core or Curry, Turner, and Randolph would probably be join by new top draft talent in 2011.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia loses none of their (existing) young core. They get a younger, high-scoring guard that makes $8 million less than Iguadala. In addition, many of the top prospects in the 2011 draft are 6-8 or taller. With multiple picks, the Sixers would be in a position to possibly trade up for a good, young power forward to replace Brand and pair with Marreese Speights.
Maggette and Biedrins are more problematic. Maggette is due $11.7 million in 2012-13, while Biedrins is due to make $9 million in 2013-14. These contracts are terrible, but Iguodala and Brand's are worse. In 2011-12, Brand will no doubt be even less effective than he was last season, but will combine with Iggy to make nearly $32 million, more than Kobe Bryant. In 2012-13, Iguodala by himself will make just $4 million less than Maggette and Biedrins combined.
In the short term, Philly would pay $19 million next season for Maggette and Biedrins as opposed to around $32 million for Iggy, Brand, and Dalembert. The difference would almost pay for a full year of Zach Randolph, if they decided to keep him.
Maggette has had a reputation of being selfish, but has been effective as a sixth man in the past. He can also play multiple positions (just not as many as he did under Nellieball). Beidrins is limited offensively, but the Sixers have the inside scoring (Speights) that the Warriors lack. He is also only 24, and has room to improve under a new, more disciplined coach, something Brand might not have the body to do anymore. Turiaf would add energy off the bench to spell Marresse.
The Sixers lineup might be:
Jrue Holiday/Lou Williams
O.J. Mayo
Thad Young/Corey Maggette
Zach Randolph/Andris Biedrins
Marresse Speights
Overall, the deal is not perfect for the Sixers, but they are dumping a huge amount of salary while acquiring draft picks, young players, and a good forward with an expiring contract. And ofr a young, rebuilding team, picks always help, giving them flexibility even though they would give up the #2 pick this year.
Memphis will probably have to choose between a near-max contract for Rudy Gay and keeping Zach Randolph and locking him up to a nearly as huge a deal. Randolph is a good player, but his contract caused him to be traded twice in quick succession. He also has significant character issues which could scare off potential trading partners.
In this deal, Memphis not only doesn't have to pay Randolph, but also gets to trade up in the draft and acquire Monta Ellis for less than they were previously willing to give up for him (Hasheem Thabeet is not included in this trade). They also get Brandon Wright to possibly replace some of the production lost with the exit of Randolph (although Thabeet would have to step up his game as well).
Considering that they only gave up Quentin Richardson to get Randolph, the trade boils down to: Quentin Richardson, the #25 of #28 pick, and O.J. Mayo for Monta Ellis, Brandon Wright, and the right to trade up from #12 to #6. This is not a bad deal at all, especially since Memphis drafted Thabeet to be a future front-court presence next to Marc Gasol. A Mike Conley-Monta Ellis-Rudy Gay combination could be one of the fastest and most-athletic in the league. And Ellis is approximately the same age as the other two in the trio, having been drafted out of high-school.
The Grizzlies would save money as well. While the trade would bring in $13.7 million in new salary (plus Azubuike or Morrow's salary, although Wright's expiring salary, if traded, could offset it), over $20 million would leave. If this savings allowed the front office of the Griz to match offers for Gay, it would be well worth it. If Gay left, Randolph would likely leave as well anyway, unless Memphis created their own Brand situation by offering a massive deal.
The new Memphis lineup might look like:
Mike Conley
Monta Ellis
Rudy Gay
Hasheem Thabeet / Marc Gasol
Hasheem Thabeet / Marc Gasol
The Grizzlies could either shop the #6 pick, or use it to draft a project or add depth.
A trade like this would be difficult to pull off, given the huge salaries involved. And none of the teams would get exactly what they wanted. Nevertheless, all three teams would benefit in some way: two would gain cap space and the other would get a potential star.
A more realisitic trade might involve:
Warriors get: Mayo, Brand, #2 (Turner)
76ers get: Wright, Turiaf, Thabeet, #6, #12
Grizz get: Ellis, future (mid-round) #1 from Warriors
True, there are no expiring contracts, and Golden State doesn't dump Maggette or Biedrins, but they do get Mayo for Ellis, and still receive Evan Turner. They also still have Radmanovich's expiring.
Meanwhile Philly dumps Brand, get #6 and #12 for #2, and get to see if they can make a good player out of Wright. Turiaf is filler, but he's a big, active body for the bench, or to start opposite Speights. Thabeet is raw, but perhaps he could be a good player in the future. The Sixers also get to keep Dalembert's expiring.
Lastly, Memphis still executes the Ellis trade. And by trading #12 in 2010 for #8-15 next year, they open up the possibility of trading up in next year's draft. In addition, they essentially defer the rookie contract salary to 2011, and every dollar counts when it comes to Rudy Gay.
However, it would not be easy, since Philadelphia has indicated that any trade would have to include the albatross contract of Elton Brand. Below is a trade that functions as a salary dump, but by involving a third team, solves some needs as well.
Warriors receive: Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, Sam Dalembert (expiring), #2 pick (2010 - from Philly)
76ers receive: Corey Maggette, O.J. Mayo, Andris Biedrins, Zach Randolph (expiring), Ronny Turiaf, #12 pick (2010 - from Memphis), #25 or #28 pick (2010 -from Memphis), future first round pick (from Golden State - top-three protected for a few years)
Grizzlies receive: Monta Ellis, Brandon Wright, #6 pick (2010 - from Golden State), Kelenna Azubuike or Anthony Morrow (sign-and-trade)
The Warriors' starting lineup would look something like this (assuming Evan Turner went second):
Stephen Curry
Andre Iguodala/Evan Turner
Andre Iguodala/Evan Turner
Anthony Randolph/ Elton Brand
Anthony Tolliver/Sam Dalembert
If Wall fell to the second spot, Iguodala would play at the three full-time. Center would be a massive hole in the lineup, but that wouldn't be a new situation for the Warriors. Dalembert is not a good fit in the high-speed Warriors offense, but as an expiring contract, he wouldn't around long anyway. Similarly, Brand probably wouldn't block Randolph in most situations because Elton isn't as good of a fit. However, both Brand and Dalembert would be more useful against teams such as the Lakers or Spurs.
The Warriors would still have Vlad Radmanovich's $6 million-plus expiring, combining with Dalembert's contract to create a very attractive sign-and-trade package for a big man. They also keep Anthony Randolph to see if he can take the next step and become a star. If not, the cap could be use to help fill out the roster with decent front-court and bench. players And, of course, Curry and Turner or Curry and Wall would both be formidable duos for years to come.
Besides, the Warriors need stars to catch up in future Western Conference playoff races. Turner/Wall could be one, and Iguodala, while not a superstar, would bring defense and versatility to the wing position. The Warriors are not going to contend overnight, and by the time Iggy's and Brand's contracts would be expiring, the young core or Curry, Turner, and Randolph would probably be join by new top draft talent in 2011.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia loses none of their (existing) young core. They get a younger, high-scoring guard that makes $8 million less than Iguadala. In addition, many of the top prospects in the 2011 draft are 6-8 or taller. With multiple picks, the Sixers would be in a position to possibly trade up for a good, young power forward to replace Brand and pair with Marreese Speights.
Maggette and Biedrins are more problematic. Maggette is due $11.7 million in 2012-13, while Biedrins is due to make $9 million in 2013-14. These contracts are terrible, but Iguodala and Brand's are worse. In 2011-12, Brand will no doubt be even less effective than he was last season, but will combine with Iggy to make nearly $32 million, more than Kobe Bryant. In 2012-13, Iguodala by himself will make just $4 million less than Maggette and Biedrins combined.
In the short term, Philly would pay $19 million next season for Maggette and Biedrins as opposed to around $32 million for Iggy, Brand, and Dalembert. The difference would almost pay for a full year of Zach Randolph, if they decided to keep him.
Maggette has had a reputation of being selfish, but has been effective as a sixth man in the past. He can also play multiple positions (just not as many as he did under Nellieball). Beidrins is limited offensively, but the Sixers have the inside scoring (Speights) that the Warriors lack. He is also only 24, and has room to improve under a new, more disciplined coach, something Brand might not have the body to do anymore. Turiaf would add energy off the bench to spell Marresse.
The Sixers lineup might be:
Jrue Holiday/Lou Williams
O.J. Mayo
Thad Young/Corey Maggette
Zach Randolph/Andris Biedrins
Marresse Speights
Overall, the deal is not perfect for the Sixers, but they are dumping a huge amount of salary while acquiring draft picks, young players, and a good forward with an expiring contract. And ofr a young, rebuilding team, picks always help, giving them flexibility even though they would give up the #2 pick this year.
Memphis will probably have to choose between a near-max contract for Rudy Gay and keeping Zach Randolph and locking him up to a nearly as huge a deal. Randolph is a good player, but his contract caused him to be traded twice in quick succession. He also has significant character issues which could scare off potential trading partners.
In this deal, Memphis not only doesn't have to pay Randolph, but also gets to trade up in the draft and acquire Monta Ellis for less than they were previously willing to give up for him (Hasheem Thabeet is not included in this trade). They also get Brandon Wright to possibly replace some of the production lost with the exit of Randolph (although Thabeet would have to step up his game as well).
Considering that they only gave up Quentin Richardson to get Randolph, the trade boils down to: Quentin Richardson, the #25 of #28 pick, and O.J. Mayo for Monta Ellis, Brandon Wright, and the right to trade up from #12 to #6. This is not a bad deal at all, especially since Memphis drafted Thabeet to be a future front-court presence next to Marc Gasol. A Mike Conley-Monta Ellis-Rudy Gay combination could be one of the fastest and most-athletic in the league. And Ellis is approximately the same age as the other two in the trio, having been drafted out of high-school.
The Grizzlies would save money as well. While the trade would bring in $13.7 million in new salary (plus Azubuike or Morrow's salary, although Wright's expiring salary, if traded, could offset it), over $20 million would leave. If this savings allowed the front office of the Griz to match offers for Gay, it would be well worth it. If Gay left, Randolph would likely leave as well anyway, unless Memphis created their own Brand situation by offering a massive deal.
The new Memphis lineup might look like:
Mike Conley
Monta Ellis
Rudy Gay
Hasheem Thabeet / Marc Gasol
Hasheem Thabeet / Marc Gasol
The Grizzlies could either shop the #6 pick, or use it to draft a project or add depth.
A trade like this would be difficult to pull off, given the huge salaries involved. And none of the teams would get exactly what they wanted. Nevertheless, all three teams would benefit in some way: two would gain cap space and the other would get a potential star.
A more realisitic trade might involve:
Warriors get: Mayo, Brand, #2 (Turner)
76ers get: Wright, Turiaf, Thabeet, #6, #12
Grizz get: Ellis, future (mid-round) #1 from Warriors
True, there are no expiring contracts, and Golden State doesn't dump Maggette or Biedrins, but they do get Mayo for Ellis, and still receive Evan Turner. They also still have Radmanovich's expiring.
Meanwhile Philly dumps Brand, get #6 and #12 for #2, and get to see if they can make a good player out of Wright. Turiaf is filler, but he's a big, active body for the bench, or to start opposite Speights. Thabeet is raw, but perhaps he could be a good player in the future. The Sixers also get to keep Dalembert's expiring.
Lastly, Memphis still executes the Ellis trade. And by trading #12 in 2010 for #8-15 next year, they open up the possibility of trading up in next year's draft. In addition, they essentially defer the rookie contract salary to 2011, and every dollar counts when it comes to Rudy Gay.
Friday, May 21, 2010
Is Ekpe Udoh a legitimate option for the Warriors at #6?
Golden State will probably not luck into a top-three talent at next month's NBA draft (unless a trade occurs). On most mock drafts, the Warriors are locked in on a few players. However, Matt Steinmetz of CSN Bay Area suggests that if the Warriors can't trade down, they should take Ekpe Udoh with the sixth overall pick.
While Udoh's stock has risen since he transferred form Michigan to Baylor, he is by no means a consensus top-six or even top-ten pick. However, his game could be beneficial to the Warriors in more ways than one.
Udoh's greatest asset is his defense. Obviously Warrior fans and NBA fans in general know that defense is not the team's strength, but statistics tell the story as well: Not since 2006-2007 has Golden State given up fewer than 106 points per game in a season. In fact this figure has increased to over 112 PPG allow in the last two seasons. Udoh averaged 3.7 blocks per game last season and had thirteen game with five or more blocks.
Ekpe's 18 point, 17 rebound, 10 block effort against Morgan State brought him significant attention in the national media. However, he was fairly consistent throughout conference play, and although he blocked fewer shots in the Big 12 tournament and the early rounds of the NCAA, he rebounded well in the huge match-up with Duke, blocking 5 shots against a large and deep team. Hassan Whiteside, playing against mostly inferior competition for Marshall, led the nation with 5.44 BPG, while Cole Aldrich (3.47) came close to Udoh's figure (3.88) playing in the league as Ekpe. The closest first-round prospect after Aldrich was Ed Davis (2.67).
Despite his aggressive play, Udoh rarely fouled out, and managed to play 30-35 minutes in almost every game, including against Duke. By comparison, DeMarcus Cousins managed to play 30 minutes in only six games all season, and none in last month, when it mattered most.
Depending on what position he plays (Don Nelson might ask him to defend opposing centers) in the NBA, Udoh could be pushed around. However, he does weight around 240 pounds, which is decent and compares well even to prospects such as Cole Aldrich. Udoh weighs more than 20 pounds more than Anthony Randolph did when he entered the draft. However, Cousins could end up out-weighing him by over 40 pounds. Udoh weighs about the same as Andris Beidrins, who has been pushed around in the past, but was slowing getting better defensively before his injury.
Despite his huge wingspan (7-4.5 according to nbadraft.net), Udoh (9.8 RPG) ranks below fellow prospects Al-Farouq Aminu (10.7), Cousins (10.1 in far fewer minutes), and Aldrich (9.9) in rebounds per game. Greg Monros isn't far behind at 9.5, while the raw Whiteside pulled down 9.2 in the about the same minutes as Cousins. Still, Udoh is in the top thirty.
Ekpe fairs better in the offensive rebounding category. Aminu's and Cousins' athleticism show, with 4.2 and 4.1, respectively. However, Udoh's 3.6 is still very good, and outclasses Whiteside (2.8) and Aldrich (3.0). Greg Monroe's 2.1 is barely better than Evan Turner's figure (1.9).
Udoh's offensive capabilities are more problematic. The Warriors don't need any more offense from the guard positions, but production from the 4/5 spots could be better. Although he averaged almost 14 points per game, Ekpe was sometimes prone to bad shooting (3-15 against Ok. State, 2-10 vs. Kansas St., 4-13 against St. Mary's, 3-15 against Texas). He also averaged 2.4 turnovers per game.
Some of Udoh's low scoring numbers were due to the offense in which he played. Baylor played a guard-heavy, up-tempo offense led by scorers LaceDarius Dunn, Tweety Carter, and Quincy Acy. Udoh benefited from this offense, dishing out 2.7 assists per game. There were even occasions when Ekpe was the best ball-handler (better A/T ratio than Dunn) and shooter (better field goal percentage than Carter or Dunn, comparable points per shot) on the floor for the Bears.
Udoh is not going to bully NBA forwards or centers in the paint, but if he catches them out of position and without help, look out. Udoh has some range (out to 20 feet, according to some scouts), and can hit a decent percentage of his free-throws (around 68%). However, he didn't attempt many free throws per game, mostly due to relative lack of a post-up move and ability to hang down low with bulkier centers and forwards.
In other words, Udoh, while he has many weaknesses, would add tough defense. His age (23) makes him not that much younger than Monta Ellis, and he would need to get stronger to become an elite NBA defender. But with Ellis and Corey Maggette already expert at slashing to the rim, and Curry, Morrow, and Azubuike lighting it up from the outside, Udoh's faults would largely be neutralized.
If nothing else, Udoh would be more-athletic, defensive-minded version of Andris Biedrins. Whether or not the front office would think this was worth the number-six pick is debatable. The upsides of Aminu or Greg Monroe might be too much to pass up.
But if the team decided to trade Biedrins as part of a package deal for an All-Star big man, or wanted to trade down, Udoh could still be in a Warriors uniform next season. Given the right role, he probably wouldn't disappoint.
(Thanks to LarryLegendofOracle at Golden State of Mind for finding the Steinmetz article and starting a discussion on Udoh.)
While Udoh's stock has risen since he transferred form Michigan to Baylor, he is by no means a consensus top-six or even top-ten pick. However, his game could be beneficial to the Warriors in more ways than one.
Udoh's greatest asset is his defense. Obviously Warrior fans and NBA fans in general know that defense is not the team's strength, but statistics tell the story as well: Not since 2006-2007 has Golden State given up fewer than 106 points per game in a season. In fact this figure has increased to over 112 PPG allow in the last two seasons. Udoh averaged 3.7 blocks per game last season and had thirteen game with five or more blocks.
Ekpe's 18 point, 17 rebound, 10 block effort against Morgan State brought him significant attention in the national media. However, he was fairly consistent throughout conference play, and although he blocked fewer shots in the Big 12 tournament and the early rounds of the NCAA, he rebounded well in the huge match-up with Duke, blocking 5 shots against a large and deep team. Hassan Whiteside, playing against mostly inferior competition for Marshall, led the nation with 5.44 BPG, while Cole Aldrich (3.47) came close to Udoh's figure (3.88) playing in the league as Ekpe. The closest first-round prospect after Aldrich was Ed Davis (2.67).
Despite his aggressive play, Udoh rarely fouled out, and managed to play 30-35 minutes in almost every game, including against Duke. By comparison, DeMarcus Cousins managed to play 30 minutes in only six games all season, and none in last month, when it mattered most.
Depending on what position he plays (Don Nelson might ask him to defend opposing centers) in the NBA, Udoh could be pushed around. However, he does weight around 240 pounds, which is decent and compares well even to prospects such as Cole Aldrich. Udoh weighs more than 20 pounds more than Anthony Randolph did when he entered the draft. However, Cousins could end up out-weighing him by over 40 pounds. Udoh weighs about the same as Andris Beidrins, who has been pushed around in the past, but was slowing getting better defensively before his injury.
Despite his huge wingspan (7-4.5 according to nbadraft.net), Udoh (9.8 RPG) ranks below fellow prospects Al-Farouq Aminu (10.7), Cousins (10.1 in far fewer minutes), and Aldrich (9.9) in rebounds per game. Greg Monros isn't far behind at 9.5, while the raw Whiteside pulled down 9.2 in the about the same minutes as Cousins. Still, Udoh is in the top thirty.
Ekpe fairs better in the offensive rebounding category. Aminu's and Cousins' athleticism show, with 4.2 and 4.1, respectively. However, Udoh's 3.6 is still very good, and outclasses Whiteside (2.8) and Aldrich (3.0). Greg Monroe's 2.1 is barely better than Evan Turner's figure (1.9).
Udoh's offensive capabilities are more problematic. The Warriors don't need any more offense from the guard positions, but production from the 4/5 spots could be better. Although he averaged almost 14 points per game, Ekpe was sometimes prone to bad shooting (3-15 against Ok. State, 2-10 vs. Kansas St., 4-13 against St. Mary's, 3-15 against Texas). He also averaged 2.4 turnovers per game.
Some of Udoh's low scoring numbers were due to the offense in which he played. Baylor played a guard-heavy, up-tempo offense led by scorers LaceDarius Dunn, Tweety Carter, and Quincy Acy. Udoh benefited from this offense, dishing out 2.7 assists per game. There were even occasions when Ekpe was the best ball-handler (better A/T ratio than Dunn) and shooter (better field goal percentage than Carter or Dunn, comparable points per shot) on the floor for the Bears.
Udoh is not going to bully NBA forwards or centers in the paint, but if he catches them out of position and without help, look out. Udoh has some range (out to 20 feet, according to some scouts), and can hit a decent percentage of his free-throws (around 68%). However, he didn't attempt many free throws per game, mostly due to relative lack of a post-up move and ability to hang down low with bulkier centers and forwards.
In other words, Udoh, while he has many weaknesses, would add tough defense. His age (23) makes him not that much younger than Monta Ellis, and he would need to get stronger to become an elite NBA defender. But with Ellis and Corey Maggette already expert at slashing to the rim, and Curry, Morrow, and Azubuike lighting it up from the outside, Udoh's faults would largely be neutralized.
If nothing else, Udoh would be more-athletic, defensive-minded version of Andris Biedrins. Whether or not the front office would think this was worth the number-six pick is debatable. The upsides of Aminu or Greg Monroe might be too much to pass up.
But if the team decided to trade Biedrins as part of a package deal for an All-Star big man, or wanted to trade down, Udoh could still be in a Warriors uniform next season. Given the right role, he probably wouldn't disappoint.
(Thanks to LarryLegendofOracle at Golden State of Mind for finding the Steinmetz article and starting a discussion on Udoh.)
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Lincecum struggles, yet doesn't lose. How often does this happen?
Odds were, Tim Lincecum had to have a bad game at least once this season. Tonight against Arizona was one of them.
Five earned runs for a starter in five innings (for a game ERA of 9.00 as opposed to his season average of 1.76) usually results in a loss even for teams with far greater offensive firepower than San Francisco (as
it did tonight).
Yet after spotting the Diamondbacks five runs in the bottom of the fifth, Lincecum was suddenly (albeit briefly) in position to win the game after the Giants offense erupted for a five-run sixth to go on top 7-5.
Giving up five runs isn't an everyday (or every-month) occurrence for Tim, but Freakish things have happened in the past. Here are the few times the Giants have needed to save The Franchise when he gave up four or more runs. For comparison purposes, Timmy is 6-12 is games in which he's received two or fewer runs of support, 17-5 with three to five runs behind him, and a perfect 22-0 with six plus runs scored in his games.
2007: Twenty-four starts, 5 total games with 4+ ER: 3 losses, 2 No Decisions, 5 team losses.
May 6th vs. Philadelphia: 4.1 IP, 5 ER, ND (Giants: Loss, 8-5); Tim is bailed out in his first game in the majors (career ERA: 10.39). Lincecum for Rios, while you still can!
June 3rd at Philadelphia: 6.2 IP, 6 ER, ND (Loss, 9-8); The Phils strike again, but Tim remains undefeated in the majors. Lincecum exits with the lead, but three inherited runners score against the bullpen, setting the stage for a five-run inning for Philly.
June 13th vs. Toronto: 3.2 IP, 7 ER, Loss (7-4): First MLB loss is a debacle.
June 19th at Milwaukee: 4.0 IP, 6 ER, Loss (6-2): Very next start. ERA is 5.89, a career high for mid-season.
August 11th vs. Pittsburgh: 6.0 IP, 6 ER, Loss (13-3): Freddy Sanchez has five RBI for the Pirates. Lincecum for Sanchez! (Tim Alderson is a new draftee at the time).
2008: Thirty-three starts, 6 total games with 4+ ER, 3 losses, 3 No Decisions, 1-5 team record.
June 16th vs. Detroit: 7.0 IP, 4 ER, ND (Win 8-6): Tim exits trailing 4-3, but five Giants runs in the bottom of seventh bail him out. This game marked the first time in Lincecum's career that he gave up four or more runs but the Giants battled back for the win.
June 22nd at Kansas City: 5.0 IP, 5 ER, ND (Loss 11-10): Keiichi Yabu allows four earned runs in relief without retiring a batter the inning after Lincecum is pulled up ten to five.
July 8th at Mets: 6.0 IP, 4 ER, Loss (7-0): No run support, but Lincecum gives up two home runs.
July 20th vs. Milwaukee: 6.0 IP, 5 ER, Loss (7-4): Two more home runs served up.
September 2nd at Colorado: 5.0 IP, 5 ER, ND (Loss 6-5): Giants rally after Tim leaves down 5-2, but Yabu takes the loss in relief.
September 23rd vs. Colorado: 4.1 IP, 6 ER, Loss (9-4): Tim loses in one of his worst starts of the season.
2009: Thirty-two starts, 5 total games with 4+ ER, 3 losses, 2 No Decisions, 1-4 team record.
April 12th at San Diego: 5.1 IP, 4 ER, Loss (6-1): After lasting only three innings on opening day, Lincecum lowers his ERA to 7.56, but still loses badly.
May 15th vs. Mets: 6.0 IP, 5 ER, ND (Loss 8-6): Tim gives up five runs in the first two innings, Giants rally, Brian Wilson takes the loss with two unearned runs in the ninth.
July 22nd at Atlanta: 5.0 IP, 4 ER, Loss (4-2): Nine strikeouts in five innings for Tim, but a two-out three-run homer by Brian McCann in the third dooms Lincecum to the loss.
August 18th at Cincinnati: 6.0 IP, 5 ER, ND (Win 8-5): Timmy is pulled trailing 5-1, but immediately after he leaves, San Francisco plates four to tie the game.
September 20th at Dodgers: 4.0 IP, 5 ER, Loss (6-2): Tim gives up more walks than strikeouts, and allows a home run in just four innings. The loss is on him.
2010: Nine starts, 1 game with 4+ ER, 1 No Decision, 0-1 team record.
May 20th at Arizona: 5.0 IP, 5 ER, ND (Loss 8-7). Lincecum gets only three ground-ball outs (compared to six to fourteen such outs in other starts this season), and walks five.
In other words, Lincecum, in his ninth start, was actually statistically overdue for an off-game. And although it definitely wasn't unprecedented for the Giants to mount an immediate and significant rally after The Freak left the game, the odds were against San Francisco ultimately securing the win. The good news for the Giants is that Timmy may not give up four or more runs in a game for another month if his career trends hold.
Five earned runs for a starter in five innings (for a game ERA of 9.00 as opposed to his season average of 1.76) usually results in a loss even for teams with far greater offensive firepower than San Francisco (as
it did tonight).
Yet after spotting the Diamondbacks five runs in the bottom of the fifth, Lincecum was suddenly (albeit briefly) in position to win the game after the Giants offense erupted for a five-run sixth to go on top 7-5.
Giving up five runs isn't an everyday (or every-month) occurrence for Tim, but Freakish things have happened in the past. Here are the few times the Giants have needed to save The Franchise when he gave up four or more runs. For comparison purposes, Timmy is 6-12 is games in which he's received two or fewer runs of support, 17-5 with three to five runs behind him, and a perfect 22-0 with six plus runs scored in his games.
2007: Twenty-four starts, 5 total games with 4+ ER: 3 losses, 2 No Decisions, 5 team losses.
May 6th vs. Philadelphia: 4.1 IP, 5 ER, ND (Giants: Loss, 8-5); Tim is bailed out in his first game in the majors (career ERA: 10.39). Lincecum for Rios, while you still can!
June 3rd at Philadelphia: 6.2 IP, 6 ER, ND (Loss, 9-8); The Phils strike again, but Tim remains undefeated in the majors. Lincecum exits with the lead, but three inherited runners score against the bullpen, setting the stage for a five-run inning for Philly.
June 13th vs. Toronto: 3.2 IP, 7 ER, Loss (7-4): First MLB loss is a debacle.
June 19th at Milwaukee: 4.0 IP, 6 ER, Loss (6-2): Very next start. ERA is 5.89, a career high for mid-season.
August 11th vs. Pittsburgh: 6.0 IP, 6 ER, Loss (13-3): Freddy Sanchez has five RBI for the Pirates. Lincecum for Sanchez! (Tim Alderson is a new draftee at the time).
2008: Thirty-three starts, 6 total games with 4+ ER, 3 losses, 3 No Decisions, 1-5 team record.
June 16th vs. Detroit: 7.0 IP, 4 ER, ND (Win 8-6): Tim exits trailing 4-3, but five Giants runs in the bottom of seventh bail him out. This game marked the first time in Lincecum's career that he gave up four or more runs but the Giants battled back for the win.
June 22nd at Kansas City: 5.0 IP, 5 ER, ND (Loss 11-10): Keiichi Yabu allows four earned runs in relief without retiring a batter the inning after Lincecum is pulled up ten to five.
July 8th at Mets: 6.0 IP, 4 ER, Loss (7-0): No run support, but Lincecum gives up two home runs.
July 20th vs. Milwaukee: 6.0 IP, 5 ER, Loss (7-4): Two more home runs served up.
September 2nd at Colorado: 5.0 IP, 5 ER, ND (Loss 6-5): Giants rally after Tim leaves down 5-2, but Yabu takes the loss in relief.
September 23rd vs. Colorado: 4.1 IP, 6 ER, Loss (9-4): Tim loses in one of his worst starts of the season.
2009: Thirty-two starts, 5 total games with 4+ ER, 3 losses, 2 No Decisions, 1-4 team record.
April 12th at San Diego: 5.1 IP, 4 ER, Loss (6-1): After lasting only three innings on opening day, Lincecum lowers his ERA to 7.56, but still loses badly.
May 15th vs. Mets: 6.0 IP, 5 ER, ND (Loss 8-6): Tim gives up five runs in the first two innings, Giants rally, Brian Wilson takes the loss with two unearned runs in the ninth.
July 22nd at Atlanta: 5.0 IP, 4 ER, Loss (4-2): Nine strikeouts in five innings for Tim, but a two-out three-run homer by Brian McCann in the third dooms Lincecum to the loss.
August 18th at Cincinnati: 6.0 IP, 5 ER, ND (Win 8-5): Timmy is pulled trailing 5-1, but immediately after he leaves, San Francisco plates four to tie the game.
September 20th at Dodgers: 4.0 IP, 5 ER, Loss (6-2): Tim gives up more walks than strikeouts, and allows a home run in just four innings. The loss is on him.
2010: Nine starts, 1 game with 4+ ER, 1 No Decision, 0-1 team record.
May 20th at Arizona: 5.0 IP, 5 ER, ND (Loss 8-7). Lincecum gets only three ground-ball outs (compared to six to fourteen such outs in other starts this season), and walks five.
In other words, Lincecum, in his ninth start, was actually statistically overdue for an off-game. And although it definitely wasn't unprecedented for the Giants to mount an immediate and significant rally after The Freak left the game, the odds were against San Francisco ultimately securing the win. The good news for the Giants is that Timmy may not give up four or more runs in a game for another month if his career trends hold.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Warriors Lose In Lottery, Owner Loses Leverage
By all rights, the NBA Draft Lottery should be one of the most boring sporting "events" in any given calendar year. Talking heads waste most of the broadcast talking about players that most college (or NBA) basketball fan should already know about, especially if they are hard-core enough of a fan to watch the Draft Lottery. Then representatives from the worst half of the league sit down and try not to look disappointed that their franchise's designated lucky charm failed to work properly. Finally, a list appears on the screen, after which the internet usually explodes with David Stern conspiracy theories.
And while this years' draft lottery featured John Wall trying to avoid the Eli Manning/Ricky Rubio Draft Day Face, and a win by a team that probably deserved good luck after the Gilbert Arenas fiasco, ESPN would no doubt have has a better story to print if the Nets had won the lottery.
Of course, for a Warriors fan, the lottery is an epic annual event that usually is the only ray of hope in an otherwise depressing season. It has also played a large role in ensuring that future seasons would be equally depressing. Of course, disastrous picks and trades on draft have played a huge role in Golden State's long run of incompetent front offices. But considering how many times they have been in the lottery (and that they seem to always been the fifth or sixth-worst team), you'd think that the basketball gods would smile on them at least once a decade.
It's difficult to imagine that missing out on Wall (as well as Evan Turner, DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Favors and probably even Wesley Johnson) could result in the Warriors acquiring an impact player in the draft. Obviously, a trade up isn't an impossible scenario, even for the number two pick.
But most likely Golden State will have to settle for a choice of players who either haven't reached the levels of college success expected of them (Al-Farouq Aminu, Greg Monroe) or don't have the ever-coveted "high-upside" (Cole Aldrich, Patrick Patterson). These players would improve the team, but when the Thunder get the number eight seed in the West, the Warriors need a star to go with Curry.
Even without injuries, it's doubtful that Golden State would have fared much better than the dreaded mediocre mid-to-low-lottery last season. And without a Curry-like find in this year's draft, even Anthony Randolph's return won't magically create a new We Believe team. Of course, even if the Warriors could somehow acquire Evan Turner in a trade, the resources needed to get him would have been unnecessary if the ping pong balls had bounced favorably.
The best teams are generally those who got a lucky bounce in the draft lottery: Cleveland with LeBron (the number one spot was by no means guaranteed), Orlando with Dwight Howard, etc. Even teams that haven't drafted especially well, such as Atlanta (Sheldon Williams, Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Acie Law), have found solid contributors (Al Horford) from the lottery. If a team accumulates many top-five picks over the years, it's difficult to miss over and over again. Of the Warriors' four top-five picks since 1995, two (Joe Smith and Mike Dunleavy) have been busts, but two (Vince Carter and Jason Richardson) turned out well.
Of course, as all Warriors fans know, drafting a good player doesn't mean the front office won't mess up anyway (J-Rich being the latest causality). But while missing out on a top pick is always bad for the team, this year at least, a lost opportunity could end up being beneficial in the short term.
Warriors owner Chris Cohan has been trying to sell the team for months now, and was seeking a huge haul for a team that has faithful followers, but little success over the years. Now that bids have been submitted, it seems like the $400 million plus figure sought by Cohan will not be met, even by Larry Ellison. Ellison and the other bidders have amassed their great wealth mostly through shrewd business deals. They no-doubt low-balled Cohan.
But until last night, Cohan had one last possible card to play. If a superstar like Wall was within Golden State's grasp, the owner could have claimed (legitimately) that the value of the franchise had just risen dramatically (due to the accompanying increased media attention, marketing opportunities, etc). If the draft was a buzz-kill to Warriors faithful, it probably also decreased the value of the franchise slightly, not increased it.
The sooner the Warriors change ownership, the sooner the front-office purge can begin.
And while it's probably too late for this year's draft, expectations are lowered anyway due to the fall in the lottery. If the process of fixing the unbalanced roster and targeting free agents can begin as soon as possible, however, there might be a (small) silver lining in the whole mess.
And that's probably the best Warriors fans can hope for, at this point. After years of mostly unbroken failure, however, a few more months of waiting for change doesn't seem all that bad.
And while this years' draft lottery featured John Wall trying to avoid the Eli Manning/Ricky Rubio Draft Day Face, and a win by a team that probably deserved good luck after the Gilbert Arenas fiasco, ESPN would no doubt have has a better story to print if the Nets had won the lottery.
Of course, for a Warriors fan, the lottery is an epic annual event that usually is the only ray of hope in an otherwise depressing season. It has also played a large role in ensuring that future seasons would be equally depressing. Of course, disastrous picks and trades on draft have played a huge role in Golden State's long run of incompetent front offices. But considering how many times they have been in the lottery (and that they seem to always been the fifth or sixth-worst team), you'd think that the basketball gods would smile on them at least once a decade.
It's difficult to imagine that missing out on Wall (as well as Evan Turner, DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Favors and probably even Wesley Johnson) could result in the Warriors acquiring an impact player in the draft. Obviously, a trade up isn't an impossible scenario, even for the number two pick.
But most likely Golden State will have to settle for a choice of players who either haven't reached the levels of college success expected of them (Al-Farouq Aminu, Greg Monroe) or don't have the ever-coveted "high-upside" (Cole Aldrich, Patrick Patterson). These players would improve the team, but when the Thunder get the number eight seed in the West, the Warriors need a star to go with Curry.
Even without injuries, it's doubtful that Golden State would have fared much better than the dreaded mediocre mid-to-low-lottery last season. And without a Curry-like find in this year's draft, even Anthony Randolph's return won't magically create a new We Believe team. Of course, even if the Warriors could somehow acquire Evan Turner in a trade, the resources needed to get him would have been unnecessary if the ping pong balls had bounced favorably.
The best teams are generally those who got a lucky bounce in the draft lottery: Cleveland with LeBron (the number one spot was by no means guaranteed), Orlando with Dwight Howard, etc. Even teams that haven't drafted especially well, such as Atlanta (Sheldon Williams, Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Acie Law), have found solid contributors (Al Horford) from the lottery. If a team accumulates many top-five picks over the years, it's difficult to miss over and over again. Of the Warriors' four top-five picks since 1995, two (Joe Smith and Mike Dunleavy) have been busts, but two (Vince Carter and Jason Richardson) turned out well.
Of course, as all Warriors fans know, drafting a good player doesn't mean the front office won't mess up anyway (J-Rich being the latest causality). But while missing out on a top pick is always bad for the team, this year at least, a lost opportunity could end up being beneficial in the short term.
Warriors owner Chris Cohan has been trying to sell the team for months now, and was seeking a huge haul for a team that has faithful followers, but little success over the years. Now that bids have been submitted, it seems like the $400 million plus figure sought by Cohan will not be met, even by Larry Ellison. Ellison and the other bidders have amassed their great wealth mostly through shrewd business deals. They no-doubt low-balled Cohan.
But until last night, Cohan had one last possible card to play. If a superstar like Wall was within Golden State's grasp, the owner could have claimed (legitimately) that the value of the franchise had just risen dramatically (due to the accompanying increased media attention, marketing opportunities, etc). If the draft was a buzz-kill to Warriors faithful, it probably also decreased the value of the franchise slightly, not increased it.
The sooner the Warriors change ownership, the sooner the front-office purge can begin.
And while it's probably too late for this year's draft, expectations are lowered anyway due to the fall in the lottery. If the process of fixing the unbalanced roster and targeting free agents can begin as soon as possible, however, there might be a (small) silver lining in the whole mess.
And that's probably the best Warriors fans can hope for, at this point. After years of mostly unbroken failure, however, a few more months of waiting for change doesn't seem all that bad.
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