Warriors Lose In Lottery, Owner Loses Leverage

By all rights, the NBA Draft Lottery should be one of the most boring sporting "events" in any given calendar year. Talking heads waste most of the broadcast talking about players that most college (or NBA) basketball fan should already know about, especially if they are hard-core enough of a fan to watch the Draft Lottery. Then representatives from the worst half of the league sit down and try not to look disappointed that their franchise's designated lucky charm failed to work properly. Finally, a list appears on the screen, after which the internet usually explodes with David Stern conspiracy theories.

And while this years' draft lottery featured  John Wall trying to avoid the Eli Manning/Ricky Rubio Draft Day Face, and a win by a team that probably deserved good luck after the Gilbert Arenas fiasco, ESPN would no doubt have has a better story to print if the Nets had won the lottery.

Of course, for a Warriors fan, the lottery is an epic annual event that usually is the only ray of hope in an otherwise depressing season. It has also played a large role in ensuring that future seasons would be equally depressing.  Of course, disastrous picks and trades on draft have played a huge role in Golden State's long run of incompetent front offices. But considering how many times they have been in the lottery (and that they seem to always been the fifth or sixth-worst team), you'd think that the basketball gods would smile on them at least once a decade.

It's difficult to imagine that missing out on Wall (as well as Evan Turner, DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Favors and probably even Wesley Johnson) could result in the Warriors acquiring an impact player in the draft. Obviously, a trade up isn't an impossible scenario, even for the number two pick.

But most likely Golden State will have to settle for a choice of players who either haven't reached the levels of college success expected of them (Al-Farouq Aminu, Greg Monroe) or don't have the ever-coveted "high-upside" (Cole Aldrich, Patrick Patterson). These players would improve the team, but when the Thunder get the number eight seed in the West, the Warriors need a star to go with Curry.

Even without injuries, it's doubtful that Golden State would have fared much better than the dreaded mediocre mid-to-low-lottery last season. And without a Curry-like find in this year's draft, even Anthony Randolph's return won't magically create a new We Believe team. Of course, even if the Warriors could somehow acquire Evan Turner in a trade, the resources needed to get him would have been unnecessary if the ping pong balls had bounced favorably.

The best teams are generally those who got a lucky bounce in the draft lottery: Cleveland with LeBron (the number one spot was by no means guaranteed), Orlando with Dwight Howard, etc. Even teams that haven't drafted especially well, such as Atlanta (Sheldon Williams, Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Acie Law), have found solid contributors (Al Horford) from the lottery. If a team accumulates many top-five picks over the years, it's difficult to miss over and over again. Of the Warriors' four top-five picks since 1995, two (Joe Smith and Mike Dunleavy) have been busts, but two (Vince Carter and Jason Richardson) turned out well.

Of course, as all Warriors fans know, drafting a good player doesn't mean the front office won't mess up anyway (J-Rich being the latest causality). But while missing out on a top pick is always bad for the team, this year at least, a lost opportunity could end up being beneficial in the short term.

Warriors owner Chris Cohan has been trying to sell the team for months now, and was seeking a huge haul for a team that has faithful followers, but little success over the years. Now that bids have been submitted, it seems like the $400 million plus figure sought by Cohan will not be met, even by Larry Ellison. Ellison and the other bidders have amassed their great wealth mostly through shrewd business deals. They no-doubt low-balled Cohan.

But until last night, Cohan had one last possible card to play. If a superstar like Wall was within Golden State's grasp, the owner could have claimed (legitimately) that the value of the franchise had just risen dramatically (due to the accompanying increased media attention, marketing opportunities, etc). If the draft was a buzz-kill to Warriors faithful, it probably also decreased the value of the franchise slightly, not increased it.

The sooner the Warriors change ownership, the sooner the front-office purge can begin.
And while it's probably too late for this year's draft, expectations are lowered anyway due to the fall in the lottery. If the process of fixing the unbalanced roster and targeting free agents can begin as soon as possible, however, there might be a (small) silver lining in the whole mess.

And that's probably the best Warriors fans can hope for, at this point. After years of mostly unbroken failure, however, a few more months of waiting for change doesn't seem all that bad.