RealGM, citing the San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami, is reporting that Amare Stoudemire himself is expressing doubt about a trade to Golden State, and that the Warriors' chances of a trade are slim at best.
Over the past few days, rumors about the trade have shifted wildly, ranging from Amare joking that he's joining the Lakers to apparent indications that Stoudemire might be preparing to leave the Phoenix area.
The latest rumor, as reported by Kawakami, would seem to put a stop to all trade negotiations for Stoudemire by Golden State, who would never give up any significant talent for a player who is unwilling to sign a long-term extension.
Part of Amare's problem with the Warriors was supposedly his reluctance to play center. But with Ronny Turiaf and a now-seven-foot Anthony Randolph on the roster, Amare could play his prefered power forward position.
But the Warriors have never been concerned about employing a true center, and they would certainly be willing to accommodate Amare's wish if it meant signing him long-term. Stoudemire's problem with playing center would probably never become an issue.
With Andris Biedrins' exception expiring and free agency beginning, the Suns management will be under pressure to either get a deal done, keep Stoudemire for a year, or sign him to an extension. The latest rumors might either induce them to lower Stoudemire's price (since Golden State seems adamant in keeping Curry).
By saying he doesn't want a trade, Amare could simply be exerting pressure on the Suns front office to get a trade deal done faster, but to a different team. It might lead Kerr to abandon the idea of a Golden State trade altogether, and seek another trading partner such a Chicago or Atlanta.
Strangely, Amare also apparently indicated that Golden State was giving up too much to land him. It's possible that he wants to go to a contender. But the odds that a team that's in the playoff hunt would sign-and-trade him at a maximum extension rather than waiting until 2010 or trying for Chris Bosh is probably wishful thinking by Stoudemire.
If Kerr wants to get rid of Amare badly enough, will he swing the deal more towards Golden State? If Stoudemire's comments are quoted accuratedly and are sincere, Amare might be leaning towards free agency in 2010, in which case the Suns would get nothing for him.
It is equally possible, however, that Stoudemire thinks a trade to Golden State is imminent and is trying to get what he can from both sides. From Phoenix, he wants a trade before the full-blown rebuilding gets underway, so he sends out mixed signals about wanting to stay.
From Golden State's perspective, Stoudemire indicates that he wants out of Phoenix, but doesn't praise Golden State, lest they think that he's going to sign for cheap. If the Warriors want him by the Bay, they're going to have to pay deal to compensate for flaws in Golden State's system and personnel.
Amare might just be having fun with the media, but his choice of topics might indicate that not only is the deal with Golden State not dead, but that it's closer to completion that either side realizes.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Friday, June 26, 2009
Stoudemire Deal On Hold As Warriors Try To Keep Curry
When the Minnesota Timberwolves chose Jonny Flynn with the sixth pick in last night's draft, the Warriors' new General Manager was presented with a choice: forward Jordan Hill or guard Stephen Curry. Minutes later, much to the chagrin of Knicks fans at Madison Square Garden, the choice was Curry.
Hill could turn into a solid or even great player, especially for Mike D'Antoni, who will like Hill's faced-paced style and athletic ability. But Golden State was focused on a former D'Antoni forward, Amare Stoudemire.
Media outlets were in agreement for most of Friday that Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, and either Marco Belinelli or Kelenna Azubuike would be the current Warriors sent to Phoenix for Amare.
In addition to the above players, the Warriors were rumored to be sending their seventh-overall selection in the draft to the Suns. This specualtion only increased when Curry was chosen over Hill. Steve Kerr's denials of an imminent trade at first seemed to be typical of a GM who was about to trade one of his team's best players.
But later in the evening, rumors began circulating that the Warriors, having secured Curry, didn't want to part with him for an often-injured player with a reputation for selfishness. Marc Stein reconfirmed the reports this morning, and Matt Steinmetz wrote "Ws GM Larry Riley: Can't see a scenario in which Curry is traded, hopes he's a Warrior for 10 years. 'We drafted him to play here.'"
Although Riley's words could be either more smoke-and-mirrors or an attempt to placate the fans, Curry now seems to be an obstacle rather than a facilitator for the deal. But other factors, including a contract extension for Amare, are still unresolved as well. Biedrins' BYC is still in effect, so there is still plenty of time to negotiate.
If the Warriors can stand firm on keeping Curry and still acquire Stoudemire, the Warriors might be a playoff team next year. A starting lineup would likely be Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Anthony Randolph, Amare, and Ronny Turiaf. Corey Maggette would be a key sixth-man, and Curry and Anthony Morrow playing at the same time would be deadly to perimeter defenders.
Even if both sides agree to deal, will Amare be willing to accept a sign-and-trade? His point totals will no doubt increase, and Don Nelson doesn't exactly take a hard line on playing defense, but it's still not a given that Stoudemire would agree to be more than a rental, in which case the deal makes no sense.
Will Biedrins be better than Amare in three years? Even without injury issue, Andris is locked up for cheaper than an extension for an almost-twenty-seven-year-old Stoudemire would cost. And seems to be genuinely happy with the Warriors, providing a double-double on most nights. Although Shaq no doubt took some rebounds away from Amare, Stoudemire could represent a downgrade in rebounding.
Amare does provide a huge upgrade in free-throw percentage over Andris, and has had quite a few monster playoff games. And it's a good sign that, although they are no doubt executing Don Nelson's in acquiring Stoudemire, the Warriors are standing firm on Curry, and playing hardball with the Suns, who are entering a rebuilding phase.
Still, Amare is not even the best forward to possibly become a free-agent in 2010. Chris Bosh is younger, less injury-prone, and has a better attitude. A sign-and-trade for Bosh might be the Warriors' next trade attempt if the Amare deal falls through. Getting Bosh would probably require Curry and possibly other players to complete, but Bosh is more worthy of a huge deal than Amare is.
The Stoudemire deal is far from dead. And it's still possible that Curry will be included. But the Warriors' new GM has so far avoided the shortsightedness that has handicapped the franchise for the last decade. In the case of Amare, it's buyer beware, unless the price is right.
Hill could turn into a solid or even great player, especially for Mike D'Antoni, who will like Hill's faced-paced style and athletic ability. But Golden State was focused on a former D'Antoni forward, Amare Stoudemire.
Media outlets were in agreement for most of Friday that Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, and either Marco Belinelli or Kelenna Azubuike would be the current Warriors sent to Phoenix for Amare.
In addition to the above players, the Warriors were rumored to be sending their seventh-overall selection in the draft to the Suns. This specualtion only increased when Curry was chosen over Hill. Steve Kerr's denials of an imminent trade at first seemed to be typical of a GM who was about to trade one of his team's best players.
But later in the evening, rumors began circulating that the Warriors, having secured Curry, didn't want to part with him for an often-injured player with a reputation for selfishness. Marc Stein reconfirmed the reports this morning, and Matt Steinmetz wrote "Ws GM Larry Riley: Can't see a scenario in which Curry is traded, hopes he's a Warrior for 10 years. 'We drafted him to play here.'"
Although Riley's words could be either more smoke-and-mirrors or an attempt to placate the fans, Curry now seems to be an obstacle rather than a facilitator for the deal. But other factors, including a contract extension for Amare, are still unresolved as well. Biedrins' BYC is still in effect, so there is still plenty of time to negotiate.
If the Warriors can stand firm on keeping Curry and still acquire Stoudemire, the Warriors might be a playoff team next year. A starting lineup would likely be Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Anthony Randolph, Amare, and Ronny Turiaf. Corey Maggette would be a key sixth-man, and Curry and Anthony Morrow playing at the same time would be deadly to perimeter defenders.
Even if both sides agree to deal, will Amare be willing to accept a sign-and-trade? His point totals will no doubt increase, and Don Nelson doesn't exactly take a hard line on playing defense, but it's still not a given that Stoudemire would agree to be more than a rental, in which case the deal makes no sense.
Will Biedrins be better than Amare in three years? Even without injury issue, Andris is locked up for cheaper than an extension for an almost-twenty-seven-year-old Stoudemire would cost. And seems to be genuinely happy with the Warriors, providing a double-double on most nights. Although Shaq no doubt took some rebounds away from Amare, Stoudemire could represent a downgrade in rebounding.
Amare does provide a huge upgrade in free-throw percentage over Andris, and has had quite a few monster playoff games. And it's a good sign that, although they are no doubt executing Don Nelson's in acquiring Stoudemire, the Warriors are standing firm on Curry, and playing hardball with the Suns, who are entering a rebuilding phase.
Still, Amare is not even the best forward to possibly become a free-agent in 2010. Chris Bosh is younger, less injury-prone, and has a better attitude. A sign-and-trade for Bosh might be the Warriors' next trade attempt if the Amare deal falls through. Getting Bosh would probably require Curry and possibly other players to complete, but Bosh is more worthy of a huge deal than Amare is.
The Stoudemire deal is far from dead. And it's still possible that Curry will be included. But the Warriors' new GM has so far avoided the shortsightedness that has handicapped the franchise for the last decade. In the case of Amare, it's buyer beware, unless the price is right.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Lottery Mock Draft #2: How Might Trades Impact The NBA Draft?
Yesterday, the Minnesota Timberwolves agreed to send Mike Miller and Randy Foy to Washington. Oleksiy Pecherov, Etan Thomas and Darius Songaila will be sent to Minnesota, but it is Washington's fifth-overall draft pick that is causing the most excitement for NBA fans. Minnesota's trade, along with others, could create a shake-up that effects much of draft's top ten picks.
1. L.A. Clippers: Blake Griffin
Nothing will change at the top, barring a huge and unexpected trade.
2. Memphis trades the #2 overall pick to Minnesota for the #5 and #18 overall picks. Minnesota selects Ricky Rubio.
With consecutive selections in the fifth and sixth(as well as the eighteenth) slots, Minnesota is in position to be a major player on draft day, as it was last year with the Mayo-Love trade.
Ironically, it is the Memphis Grizzlies who are the targets of Minnesota's interest again this year. The eighteenth-overall pick, acquired from Miami in the 2007 Ricky Davis trade, will no doubt be packaged with either the fifth or sixth pick to entice the Grizzlies to part with their first draft choice, number two overall. Minnesota would then use the second selection to take Ricky Rubio.
Even though they'd be giving up Foye and Miller, the Wolves would be in great shape if Rubio lives up to his potential. For Hasheem Thabeet, a Wolves-Grizzlies trade could prove costly.
According to the 2009-2010 rookie pay scale, the second pick will make approximately one million dollars per year over three years than the fifth pick. How would Thabeet, once thought to be lock for the top-three, slide to fifth (or lower)?
3. Oklahoma City: James Harden
Minnesota would trade up for one reason only - Rubio, leaving Oklahoma City to decide between James Harden and Thabeet. The jury is still out on whether or not Russell Westbrook is a true point guard. But Oklahoma City might give their former number-four pick some slack and try to keep developing him at the one, considering the high draft choice they recently invested in him.
Harden would allow the Thunder to continue to field a dynamic team, and would form a formidable trio with Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Thabeet, for all the rebounding and defensive presence he would bring to the team, would probably clog the offensive flow of the Thunder as much as he would clog the middle on defense.
4. Sacramento: Tyreke Evans
Sacramento is no doubt hoping that Rubio will fall to them on draft day (the latest Draft Express mock draft somehow has Ricky falling to number five), but in this scenario it would be impossible.
There are rumors of a Francisco Garcia-Jason Thompson trade for the number two pick, but the Kings would probably be happy to take Tyreke Evans, who would form a tall back-court with Kevin Martin, especially if the team could find a taker for Beno Udrih.
5. Memphis (from Washington via Minnesota): Hasheem Thabeet
If Memphis received the fifth pick in the hypothetical trade with Minnesota, they could take Thabeet, a player they are no doubt considering at number two, at a cheaper price. If Darko Milicic is really about to be traded to the Knicks, Thabeet paired with Marc Gasol would reestablish Memphis' superior size up front.
Detroit is rumored to have some interest in Thabeet - which would make quite a bit of sense considering Thabeet could be a 7-3 Ben Wallace. But Joe Dumars might want to save trade assets for a run at forwards Paul Milsap or Carlos Boozer, instead opting to draft B.J. Mullins at the Pistons' regular draft spot.
6. Minnesota: Stephen Curry.
Having traded Foye and Miller, the Wolves will no doubt be looking for replacements for one or both. If they chose Rubio, the point guard position would be solved. Now, they could choose to replace Miller's shooting with Stephen Curry. A Rubio-Curry back-court might lack athleticism, but would still have the potential to be extremely dynamic, since Curry's touch from the outside would make it easier for Rubio to pass inside to Al Jefferson.
A trade with Knicks would be possible, in which case the Wolves might try to go with an explosive athlete like DeMar DeRozan to compliment Rubio at number eight.
7. Golden State: Jordan Hill
The Golden State Warriors are always an enigma on draft day, but the possible trade of Jamal Crawford for Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton makes predicting their 2009 draft even harder than it was a few days ago.
Claxton could be quickly turned around, as Fabricio Oberto was by the Bucks, perhaps altering the draft further, but a trade might also come after as well, especially if it's for a veteran.
Don Nelson, true to form, has thrown out many names that the Warriors are supposedly interested in. Acie Law hasn't developed into much of a player in limited action in Atlanta, but is supposedly a long-time target of Nelson. So it's possible that a point guard is officially out of the question. In this case, Jordan Hill would be a viable option.
Law, who has an expiring contract with a team option for another year at around two million dollars, is not very athletic, and might join the Marcus Williams Bench Club next season. Even if Monta Ellis is the starting point guard next season, he will need a backup, and Law is probably not a long-term solution.
Brandon Jennings would seem to be the kind of player the Warriors would seek out, as would DeMar DeRozan. And although Jennings' stock seems to be falling over the last few years and DeRozan is a wing, they would still probably be strongly considered by Golden State. Hill, though, fills a need also and placates Monta Ellis at the same time.
8. New York: Brandon Jennings
If the Knicks can't get Rubio or Curry, they could take a guard whose upside and athleticism could make him a great compliment to you-know-who. Other than Don Nelson, Mike D'Antoni runs one of the most open offenses in the league, making Jennings a good fit.
9. Toronto: DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan could become a very good defender, and can score inside from the guard position. His lack of three-point range could hurt after the Jason Kapono trade, but he excels in quite a few areas that the Raptors are lacking in.
10. Milwaukee: James Johnson
After trading Yi to the Nets last year, and now Richard Jefferson to the Spurs, Milwaukee gets a well-rounded forward who has both range and potential.
11. New Jersey: Terrence Williams
In a future, Vince-Carter-less lineup, Williams' rebounding and passing skills could lead to many fast-break opportunities for Devin Harris.
12. Charlotte: Jonny Flynn
Flynn is the same size as Allen Iverson. Larry Brown will appreciate the fact that Flynn posses the will to get the rim as A.I., and can also pass the ball when a team-mate is open. Obviously Jonny is not expected to reach Iverson's levels, but he has many traits that might help a young team get to the playoffs.
13. Indiana: DeJuan Blair
Last year's draft pick, Roy Hibbert, has height but not enough strength (yet). Blair is short for a forward, but even so, can probably grab rebounds and fight through traffic in a way that Hibbert can't.
14. Phoenix: Earl Clark
A point guard still on the board at number fourteen this year will probably be much better than one that's around at this point next year. But Jrue Holliday didn't play the point in college, and Jeff Teague turns the ball over too often to be a successor to Steve Nash.
1. L.A. Clippers: Blake Griffin
Nothing will change at the top, barring a huge and unexpected trade.
2. Memphis trades the #2 overall pick to Minnesota for the #5 and #18 overall picks. Minnesota selects Ricky Rubio.
With consecutive selections in the fifth and sixth(as well as the eighteenth) slots, Minnesota is in position to be a major player on draft day, as it was last year with the Mayo-Love trade.
Ironically, it is the Memphis Grizzlies who are the targets of Minnesota's interest again this year. The eighteenth-overall pick, acquired from Miami in the 2007 Ricky Davis trade, will no doubt be packaged with either the fifth or sixth pick to entice the Grizzlies to part with their first draft choice, number two overall. Minnesota would then use the second selection to take Ricky Rubio.
Even though they'd be giving up Foye and Miller, the Wolves would be in great shape if Rubio lives up to his potential. For Hasheem Thabeet, a Wolves-Grizzlies trade could prove costly.
According to the 2009-2010 rookie pay scale, the second pick will make approximately one million dollars per year over three years than the fifth pick. How would Thabeet, once thought to be lock for the top-three, slide to fifth (or lower)?
3. Oklahoma City: James Harden
Minnesota would trade up for one reason only - Rubio, leaving Oklahoma City to decide between James Harden and Thabeet. The jury is still out on whether or not Russell Westbrook is a true point guard. But Oklahoma City might give their former number-four pick some slack and try to keep developing him at the one, considering the high draft choice they recently invested in him.
Harden would allow the Thunder to continue to field a dynamic team, and would form a formidable trio with Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Thabeet, for all the rebounding and defensive presence he would bring to the team, would probably clog the offensive flow of the Thunder as much as he would clog the middle on defense.
4. Sacramento: Tyreke Evans
Sacramento is no doubt hoping that Rubio will fall to them on draft day (the latest Draft Express mock draft somehow has Ricky falling to number five), but in this scenario it would be impossible.
There are rumors of a Francisco Garcia-Jason Thompson trade for the number two pick, but the Kings would probably be happy to take Tyreke Evans, who would form a tall back-court with Kevin Martin, especially if the team could find a taker for Beno Udrih.
5. Memphis (from Washington via Minnesota): Hasheem Thabeet
If Memphis received the fifth pick in the hypothetical trade with Minnesota, they could take Thabeet, a player they are no doubt considering at number two, at a cheaper price. If Darko Milicic is really about to be traded to the Knicks, Thabeet paired with Marc Gasol would reestablish Memphis' superior size up front.
Detroit is rumored to have some interest in Thabeet - which would make quite a bit of sense considering Thabeet could be a 7-3 Ben Wallace. But Joe Dumars might want to save trade assets for a run at forwards Paul Milsap or Carlos Boozer, instead opting to draft B.J. Mullins at the Pistons' regular draft spot.
6. Minnesota: Stephen Curry.
Having traded Foye and Miller, the Wolves will no doubt be looking for replacements for one or both. If they chose Rubio, the point guard position would be solved. Now, they could choose to replace Miller's shooting with Stephen Curry. A Rubio-Curry back-court might lack athleticism, but would still have the potential to be extremely dynamic, since Curry's touch from the outside would make it easier for Rubio to pass inside to Al Jefferson.
A trade with Knicks would be possible, in which case the Wolves might try to go with an explosive athlete like DeMar DeRozan to compliment Rubio at number eight.
7. Golden State: Jordan Hill
The Golden State Warriors are always an enigma on draft day, but the possible trade of Jamal Crawford for Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton makes predicting their 2009 draft even harder than it was a few days ago.
Claxton could be quickly turned around, as Fabricio Oberto was by the Bucks, perhaps altering the draft further, but a trade might also come after as well, especially if it's for a veteran.
Don Nelson, true to form, has thrown out many names that the Warriors are supposedly interested in. Acie Law hasn't developed into much of a player in limited action in Atlanta, but is supposedly a long-time target of Nelson. So it's possible that a point guard is officially out of the question. In this case, Jordan Hill would be a viable option.
Law, who has an expiring contract with a team option for another year at around two million dollars, is not very athletic, and might join the Marcus Williams Bench Club next season. Even if Monta Ellis is the starting point guard next season, he will need a backup, and Law is probably not a long-term solution.
Brandon Jennings would seem to be the kind of player the Warriors would seek out, as would DeMar DeRozan. And although Jennings' stock seems to be falling over the last few years and DeRozan is a wing, they would still probably be strongly considered by Golden State. Hill, though, fills a need also and placates Monta Ellis at the same time.
8. New York: Brandon Jennings
If the Knicks can't get Rubio or Curry, they could take a guard whose upside and athleticism could make him a great compliment to you-know-who. Other than Don Nelson, Mike D'Antoni runs one of the most open offenses in the league, making Jennings a good fit.
9. Toronto: DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan could become a very good defender, and can score inside from the guard position. His lack of three-point range could hurt after the Jason Kapono trade, but he excels in quite a few areas that the Raptors are lacking in.
10. Milwaukee: James Johnson
After trading Yi to the Nets last year, and now Richard Jefferson to the Spurs, Milwaukee gets a well-rounded forward who has both range and potential.
11. New Jersey: Terrence Williams
In a future, Vince-Carter-less lineup, Williams' rebounding and passing skills could lead to many fast-break opportunities for Devin Harris.
12. Charlotte: Jonny Flynn
Flynn is the same size as Allen Iverson. Larry Brown will appreciate the fact that Flynn posses the will to get the rim as A.I., and can also pass the ball when a team-mate is open. Obviously Jonny is not expected to reach Iverson's levels, but he has many traits that might help a young team get to the playoffs.
13. Indiana: DeJuan Blair
Last year's draft pick, Roy Hibbert, has height but not enough strength (yet). Blair is short for a forward, but even so, can probably grab rebounds and fight through traffic in a way that Hibbert can't.
14. Phoenix: Earl Clark
A point guard still on the board at number fourteen this year will probably be much better than one that's around at this point next year. But Jrue Holliday didn't play the point in college, and Jeff Teague turns the ball over too often to be a successor to Steve Nash.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Posey To AAA, Bumgarner To Majors?
Giants General Manager Brian Sabean has confirmed that Buster Posey will soon be promoted from Class-A San Jose, according to Jeff Fletcher and Henry Schulman. Posey, last year's number one draft pick, received a franchise-record $6.5 million signing bonus.
According to Sabean, the Giants wanted Posey to remain in A-ball for the entire first half of the season to work on his catching skills. The first half concluded on Sunday, with San Jose winning a record fifth-straight title. Andrew Baggerly reports that the Giants laid out this plan for Posey back in Spirng Training.
Now, says Sabean, Posey needs to catch higher-level pitchers to take the next step towards the majors. The GM noted that a jump to AAA would allow Posey to improve faster. In addition, the starting catcher in AA would lose his starting job to Posey if Buster moved up only one level. If Buster went to AAA immediately, both catchers could develop at their own paces.
Posey has definitely not disappointed in his first extended action in the minors, hitting twenty doubles and eleven home runs in the first half. His batting average is a steady .328, while his OPS is .970, about the same as his sophomore season at Florida State.
Extremely encouraging is Posey's thirty-six walks and only thirty-nine strike-outs. Angel Villalona has nine walks and fifty-eight K's, while Roger Kieschnick's totals are twelve and sixty-eight. Conner Gillaspe, the best contact hitter on the team, has more walks than strike-outs, but has only one home run.
Despite the possibility of a rapid promotion, Posey will not reach the majors this season. However, Fletcher and Baggerly note that Madison Bumgarner is due for a promotion, and that Sabean mentioned him "skipping a level."
This wording could be interpreted as meaning that Madison would be skipping AAA altogether. Sabean noted that But it might make more sense to have a Bumgarner-Posey battery start in the minors before promoting both of them in early 2010. And Sabean noted that while Madison's fastball was major-league quality, his secondary pitches need work.
Whether or not Bumgarner or Posey skip levels of minor league ball, they will be one step closer to the majors, the goal for Giants players, management, and fans alike.
According to Sabean, the Giants wanted Posey to remain in A-ball for the entire first half of the season to work on his catching skills. The first half concluded on Sunday, with San Jose winning a record fifth-straight title. Andrew Baggerly reports that the Giants laid out this plan for Posey back in Spirng Training.
Now, says Sabean, Posey needs to catch higher-level pitchers to take the next step towards the majors. The GM noted that a jump to AAA would allow Posey to improve faster. In addition, the starting catcher in AA would lose his starting job to Posey if Buster moved up only one level. If Buster went to AAA immediately, both catchers could develop at their own paces.
Posey has definitely not disappointed in his first extended action in the minors, hitting twenty doubles and eleven home runs in the first half. His batting average is a steady .328, while his OPS is .970, about the same as his sophomore season at Florida State.
Extremely encouraging is Posey's thirty-six walks and only thirty-nine strike-outs. Angel Villalona has nine walks and fifty-eight K's, while Roger Kieschnick's totals are twelve and sixty-eight. Conner Gillaspe, the best contact hitter on the team, has more walks than strike-outs, but has only one home run.
Despite the possibility of a rapid promotion, Posey will not reach the majors this season. However, Fletcher and Baggerly note that Madison Bumgarner is due for a promotion, and that Sabean mentioned him "skipping a level."
This wording could be interpreted as meaning that Madison would be skipping AAA altogether. Sabean noted that But it might make more sense to have a Bumgarner-Posey battery start in the minors before promoting both of them in early 2010. And Sabean noted that while Madison's fastball was major-league quality, his secondary pitches need work.
Whether or not Bumgarner or Posey skip levels of minor league ball, they will be one step closer to the majors, the goal for Giants players, management, and fans alike.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Rafael Rodriguez, 2008's Angel Villalona, Debuts For AZL Giants
Rafael Rodriguez, the Dominican outfielder signed last July by San Francisco for a franchise-record $2.55 million, played in his first Arizona League game on Sunday.
Rodriguez recorded only one hit in six plate appearances, an RBI single in his first at-bat, but showed his skill in other areas. In the bottom of the first inning, Rafael prevented a one-out-runner-at-third situation for his pitcher by recording an outfield assist. And after reaching on a fielder's choice in the tenth, Rodriguez recorded his first career stolen base.
The six-foot-five prospect, who will turn seventeen in July and is the youngest player on the AZL Giants' roster, also made some mistakes. He was caught stealing after his only hit, and was thrown out at home trying to score the go-ahead run from second on a single in the tenth inning. But after all, it was only a rookie league game.
Second-baseman Julio Izturis, a 2006 signee from Venezuela, also made his U.S. debut for the Giants, collecting four hits (including a double) and a run in seven at-bats in the lead-off slot. He also stole two bases. Izturis is the brother of major leaguer Maicer Izturis (Angels). Julio's half-brother Cesar Izturis (Orioles) also plays the infield in the big leagues.
The starting pitcher for the Giants was a name familiar to fans of San Francisco's big league club. Joe Martinez, who was lucky to escape serious injury when he was stuck in the head with a line drive in April, was pitching in a rehab assignment. Martinez allowed three earned runs in two and two-thirds innings of work.
Rodriguez recorded only one hit in six plate appearances, an RBI single in his first at-bat, but showed his skill in other areas. In the bottom of the first inning, Rafael prevented a one-out-runner-at-third situation for his pitcher by recording an outfield assist. And after reaching on a fielder's choice in the tenth, Rodriguez recorded his first career stolen base.
The six-foot-five prospect, who will turn seventeen in July and is the youngest player on the AZL Giants' roster, also made some mistakes. He was caught stealing after his only hit, and was thrown out at home trying to score the go-ahead run from second on a single in the tenth inning. But after all, it was only a rookie league game.
Second-baseman Julio Izturis, a 2006 signee from Venezuela, also made his U.S. debut for the Giants, collecting four hits (including a double) and a run in seven at-bats in the lead-off slot. He also stole two bases. Izturis is the brother of major leaguer Maicer Izturis (Angels). Julio's half-brother Cesar Izturis (Orioles) also plays the infield in the big leagues.
The starting pitcher for the Giants was a name familiar to fans of San Francisco's big league club. Joe Martinez, who was lucky to escape serious injury when he was stuck in the head with a line drive in April, was pitching in a rehab assignment. Martinez allowed three earned runs in two and two-thirds innings of work.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Point-Guard-Gate: Monta's Power Grab Or Draft Ruse?
In normal circumstances, teams that are looking forward to the draft don't have to worry about players they signed to a long extension less than a year earlier. But when the team is the Golden State Warriors and the player is Monta Ellis, all bets are off.
On Tuesday, reports came out that a meeting had taken place between new Golden State GM Larry Riley, Don Nelson, and Ellis. In this meeting, Ellis was supposedly promised that the Warriors would not draft a point guard in the upcoming draft.
By Thursday, Monta was declaring that he wanted to be Warrior for the rest of his career, and Golden State management was busy talking about how Ellis wasn't a problem.
According to Ellis' agent: “The GM and the coach traveled to Memphis to further provide that assurance to Monta that this is his team and they’re looking to build this team around him for years to come . . . [His] response to them was that the most important component is winning. He wants to win and he wants to win with the Warriors.”
Typical of agent-speak, the quote potentially provides support for those on all sides of the point guard issue.
Fans who believe that Monta should stay on the team - but as a shooting guard - will point to the fact that a shooting guard is often the center of the team. Although Monta is not Kobe or Jordan, he might become a consistent all-star in the not-so-distant future. As a feature of the offense. Monta would still handle the ball on almost every possession, he just wouldn't be passing the ball from the point guard position.
In some cases, what would be good from Monta's perspective would also help the franchise as a whole. Trading the shot-hogging Corey Maggette, for example would result in more touches not only for Ellis, but for the entire team.
Monta playing the point is not one of them.
Below is an excerpt from a scouting report on Ellis from 2005 (predicting either a late first-round or early-second round selection of Ellis in the draft):
"His main draw is the fact that he's an outstanding athlete, being extremely quick and smooth in the open floor with a dynamite first step. He gets into the lane . . . whenever he pleases, elevating off one foot in the lane and hanging to finish fearlessly and creatively at the basket. He is very quick off his feet.
. . . [But] AAU ball has basically left him no grasp or comprehension of team basketball or fundamentals, and he probably wouldn't understand what's wrong with that if you tried to explain it to him . . .
His biggest problem for the short and possibly long term is that he has no NBA position. He's a 6-3 SG with absolutely no PG skills whatsoever . . . The concept of running set plays is completely foreign to him, not being capable of doing anything in a half-court offense at this point except create his own shot off the dribble or drive and dish after drawing a crowd . . .
Ellis has consistently shown a poor attitude and immaturity, pouting when things don't go his way or when the ball isn't in his hands for more than 5 seconds. He refused to shake anyone's hand at the end of the [2005] McDonalds [High-School All-American] game, because he was mad at his coach for not giving him more minutes at the PG spot . . ." (DraftExpress)
The Warriors knew who they were getting in Ellis: a player that had a chance to be superstar in the league, but was a project. In the second round, those types of players are all a GM can hope for. Complete-package superstars almost never fall out of the lottery, let alone the first round. Even supporters of Monta playing the one would agree that Ellis should work more on improving his game, and worry less about his role on the team.
Anthony Randolph was also a risk, and has had his maturity issues as well. But Randolph has adapted well to Don Nelson's system, and is spending the off-season improving his game by hitting the gym. "I'm learning when and where to do things . . . and how to put the ball on the floor as little as possible to get where I need to go," Randolph was quoted as saying earlier this week. No mopeds in sight.
Ellis' main fault (on the court) is that he wants to be a point guard. League scouts and GM's know this. Whether or not Monta demanded that the organization not draft a point guard, the issue needs to be addressed. If Baron Davis was still on the team, Monta would be a shooting guard - a highly-successful one. The only reason why Monta handled the ball more last season was that Jamal Crawford is not a pure point guard either.
Ellis needs to realize that if he's going to retire a Warrior, he should get used to having the ball passed to him, not trying to be a distributor. If Don Nelson lets him get away with some point-guard duties now, the next coach (hopefully) won't.
Conspiracy theorists will note that denials and assurances similar to those by Ellis and the Warriors' brass have taken place just before major trades throughout NBA history, including the Jason Richardson-for-Brandan Wright deal.
Trading Ellis is not the answer, however, unless the rumors that Toronto is going to sign-and-trade Chris Bosh are true. Ellis can become a star shooting guard, especially if teamed with a tall point guard who can help him defend wings and long guards.
Recent mock drafts, however, suggest that Tyreke Evans could be drafted in the five-to-seven range (possibly even at four by the Kings if Rubio is gone), leaving the Warriors with a choice between point guards Jrue Holliday and Stephen Curry, forwards Terrence Williams and Jordan Hill, and wing DeMar DeRozan. In this case, unless Golden State trades down, large segments of the fan base will likely be upset.
Ironically, this scenario would allow Monta to continue his case for point guard duties, unless Williams was used a point-forward.
If Golden State selects Hill or DeRozan, those who believe that Monta now controls the team will no doubt contend that Golden State's management has caved in by not taking a point guard. But Hill could be the best player on the board by the time the Warriors draft. Jordan would bring rebounding and inside scoring, which is needed on any team hoping to compete in the Western Conference.
Some scouts (and no doubt some teams) regard Hill as one of the top talents in the draft, regardless of position, and if he lived up to his potential, Jordan could help appease both the fan-base and Monta by helping Golden State win games.
But even a value pick has risks. The 2010 draft looks to be as loaded with forwards as the 2009 draft is with point guards. Ed Davis, Cole Aldrich, Derrick Favors, or even Greg Monroe (if he dramatically improves) or DeMarcus Cousins could all turn out to be better than Hill, who is already twenty-one.
In that case, missing out on a point guard (even a risk such as Brandon Jennings) to take Hill would not reflect well on the Warrior's new GM. And Warriors fans aren't likely to forget that Monta's fellow 2005 draftee, Ike Diogu, was the last Pac-10 power forward picked by the organization.
Don Nelson is well-known for his draft-related smoke-screens. And a new GM who was apparently appointed to continue the status quo isn't likely to begin his tenure by trading an important piece of the team's core. But there is more than enough futility and poor decisions in the franchise's past to make Golden State's fans at least a little skeptical of the front office's intentions. Hopefully, the Warriors still intend to finally move on from the post-Baron era and find the next point guard who will lead them to the playoffs.
On Tuesday, reports came out that a meeting had taken place between new Golden State GM Larry Riley, Don Nelson, and Ellis. In this meeting, Ellis was supposedly promised that the Warriors would not draft a point guard in the upcoming draft.
By Thursday, Monta was declaring that he wanted to be Warrior for the rest of his career, and Golden State management was busy talking about how Ellis wasn't a problem.
According to Ellis' agent: “The GM and the coach traveled to Memphis to further provide that assurance to Monta that this is his team and they’re looking to build this team around him for years to come . . . [His] response to them was that the most important component is winning. He wants to win and he wants to win with the Warriors.”
Typical of agent-speak, the quote potentially provides support for those on all sides of the point guard issue.
Fans who believe that Monta should stay on the team - but as a shooting guard - will point to the fact that a shooting guard is often the center of the team. Although Monta is not Kobe or Jordan, he might become a consistent all-star in the not-so-distant future. As a feature of the offense. Monta would still handle the ball on almost every possession, he just wouldn't be passing the ball from the point guard position.
In some cases, what would be good from Monta's perspective would also help the franchise as a whole. Trading the shot-hogging Corey Maggette, for example would result in more touches not only for Ellis, but for the entire team.
Monta playing the point is not one of them.
Below is an excerpt from a scouting report on Ellis from 2005 (predicting either a late first-round or early-second round selection of Ellis in the draft):
"His main draw is the fact that he's an outstanding athlete, being extremely quick and smooth in the open floor with a dynamite first step. He gets into the lane . . . whenever he pleases, elevating off one foot in the lane and hanging to finish fearlessly and creatively at the basket. He is very quick off his feet.
. . . [But] AAU ball has basically left him no grasp or comprehension of team basketball or fundamentals, and he probably wouldn't understand what's wrong with that if you tried to explain it to him . . .
His biggest problem for the short and possibly long term is that he has no NBA position. He's a 6-3 SG with absolutely no PG skills whatsoever . . . The concept of running set plays is completely foreign to him, not being capable of doing anything in a half-court offense at this point except create his own shot off the dribble or drive and dish after drawing a crowd . . .
Ellis has consistently shown a poor attitude and immaturity, pouting when things don't go his way or when the ball isn't in his hands for more than 5 seconds. He refused to shake anyone's hand at the end of the [2005] McDonalds [High-School All-American] game, because he was mad at his coach for not giving him more minutes at the PG spot . . ." (DraftExpress)
The Warriors knew who they were getting in Ellis: a player that had a chance to be superstar in the league, but was a project. In the second round, those types of players are all a GM can hope for. Complete-package superstars almost never fall out of the lottery, let alone the first round. Even supporters of Monta playing the one would agree that Ellis should work more on improving his game, and worry less about his role on the team.
Anthony Randolph was also a risk, and has had his maturity issues as well. But Randolph has adapted well to Don Nelson's system, and is spending the off-season improving his game by hitting the gym. "I'm learning when and where to do things . . . and how to put the ball on the floor as little as possible to get where I need to go," Randolph was quoted as saying earlier this week. No mopeds in sight.
Ellis' main fault (on the court) is that he wants to be a point guard. League scouts and GM's know this. Whether or not Monta demanded that the organization not draft a point guard, the issue needs to be addressed. If Baron Davis was still on the team, Monta would be a shooting guard - a highly-successful one. The only reason why Monta handled the ball more last season was that Jamal Crawford is not a pure point guard either.
Ellis needs to realize that if he's going to retire a Warrior, he should get used to having the ball passed to him, not trying to be a distributor. If Don Nelson lets him get away with some point-guard duties now, the next coach (hopefully) won't.
Conspiracy theorists will note that denials and assurances similar to those by Ellis and the Warriors' brass have taken place just before major trades throughout NBA history, including the Jason Richardson-for-Brandan Wright deal.
Trading Ellis is not the answer, however, unless the rumors that Toronto is going to sign-and-trade Chris Bosh are true. Ellis can become a star shooting guard, especially if teamed with a tall point guard who can help him defend wings and long guards.
Recent mock drafts, however, suggest that Tyreke Evans could be drafted in the five-to-seven range (possibly even at four by the Kings if Rubio is gone), leaving the Warriors with a choice between point guards Jrue Holliday and Stephen Curry, forwards Terrence Williams and Jordan Hill, and wing DeMar DeRozan. In this case, unless Golden State trades down, large segments of the fan base will likely be upset.
Ironically, this scenario would allow Monta to continue his case for point guard duties, unless Williams was used a point-forward.
If Golden State selects Hill or DeRozan, those who believe that Monta now controls the team will no doubt contend that Golden State's management has caved in by not taking a point guard. But Hill could be the best player on the board by the time the Warriors draft. Jordan would bring rebounding and inside scoring, which is needed on any team hoping to compete in the Western Conference.
Some scouts (and no doubt some teams) regard Hill as one of the top talents in the draft, regardless of position, and if he lived up to his potential, Jordan could help appease both the fan-base and Monta by helping Golden State win games.
But even a value pick has risks. The 2010 draft looks to be as loaded with forwards as the 2009 draft is with point guards. Ed Davis, Cole Aldrich, Derrick Favors, or even Greg Monroe (if he dramatically improves) or DeMarcus Cousins could all turn out to be better than Hill, who is already twenty-one.
In that case, missing out on a point guard (even a risk such as Brandon Jennings) to take Hill would not reflect well on the Warrior's new GM. And Warriors fans aren't likely to forget that Monta's fellow 2005 draftee, Ike Diogu, was the last Pac-10 power forward picked by the organization.
Don Nelson is well-known for his draft-related smoke-screens. And a new GM who was apparently appointed to continue the status quo isn't likely to begin his tenure by trading an important piece of the team's core. But there is more than enough futility and poor decisions in the franchise's past to make Golden State's fans at least a little skeptical of the front office's intentions. Hopefully, the Warriors still intend to finally move on from the post-Baron era and find the next point guard who will lead them to the playoffs.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Matt Cain Provides One More Reason Why He Shouldn't Be Traded
Not to be out-done by Tim Lincecum's complete game on Friday, Matt Cain threw one of his own two days later in a 7-1 victory that capped off a sweep of the Oakland A's in style. After giving up a first inning home run to Jack Cust, Cain threw eight innings of three-hit ball the rest of the way. In the ninth, Cain was still sharp, retiring Cust and Matt Holliday before striking out Jason Giambi to end the game.
Although Randy Johnson has pitched after Tim Lincecum for most of the season, Cain has proven to be the true number-two starter for the Giants in 2009.
Despite his gaudy record this year, Cain has traditionally been a poster-boy for why the Giants need more hitting. He lost two-thirds of his decisions from 2007 to 2008. In 2007, he endured sixteen losses despite an ERA that would have ranked him as the top pitcher on half of the team in the major leagues.
This year, Cain has had increased run support, but has also posted a career-low in ERA. In fact, his ERA of 2.55 is fourth in the National League, slightly ahead of the 2.66 Lincecum has posted.
Cain is tied with Chad Billingsley for the N.L. wins lead (Matt has started one fewer game than Chad and has two fewer losses), and although he won't threaten for the strikeout crown like Lincecum will, Matt has K'd a respectable sixty-eight on the season, good enough for fifteenth in the National League. His WHIP of 1.28 also ranks fifteenth.
Cain has had issues with walks, which helps to account for his high Opponent's On Base Percentage (.331 - a career high). And his Opponent's Batting Average (.254) is at a career high as well But his pitches per inning in 2009 (16.1) is at career low. However, Matt is still estimated to have a value of $4.6 million so far this season, on pace for around $14-15 million. By comparison, Lincecum's Cy Young season was valued at around $32 million.
So does this mean that Cain is half the pitcher Lincecum is? Maybe, since Lincecum's strikeout-to-walk ratio has increased from around three last season to around four this year, while some of Cain's important stats have become worse over the last few years.
For a stats perspective, it looks like Cain is getting somewhat lucky this season (not that he doesn't deserve it after the last few years he's endured), and might have peaked as a player. But that doesn't mean he isn't valuable to the organization, and should be traded for a thirty-something bat.
Even if the temptation is there to trade for hitting to stay in the Wild Card, it would be a mistake to get rid of Cain for a bat, even though Matt would command much more than Jonathan Sanchez. With Cain out of the rotation, an inexperienced pitcher (Kevin Pucetas?) or a pitcher not deemed to be worthy of a spot at the beginning of the season could be promoted into the major league rotation. This might negate the effect of a big bat, who could be walked anyway.
The odds of Pucetas or even Madison Bumgarner replacing Cain's production this season are not large. Bumgarner, who is more talented than Pucetas and has the potential to surpass Cain's production within a year or two in the big leagues, has never pitched beyond the AA level.
David Price provided a precedent last year for rapid promotion of a pitcher into a pressure situation, but Price was a college pitcher, and was used in relief. This year, he started the season in AAA before hearing the call to start at the big league level. Even Lincecum, after rocketing through the minors, had an ERA around 4.00 in his first season in the big leagues. Bumgarner will be twenty in August, two years younger than Price.
Next year, Randy Johnson will no longer be in the rotation and, unfortunately, Noah Lowry's injury-marred tenure with the Giants appears to be over. Tim Alderson and Bumgarner will eventually fill those two slots in the rotation, but a Cain trade would break a future rotation in which Matt would potentially be fourth.
The best Cain trade scenarios for the Giants might be to acquire two decent major league hitters (hopefully with power) or two or more prospects (one hitting, one pitching). But this assumes that Cain is being sold at his peak value. If Cain doesn't decline over the next few years, there's little reason not to keep him while he's signed fairly cheaply. In 2007, the Giants believed enough in Cain to sign him to an extension. Unless the deal is decidedly in the Giants' favor, Brian Sabean should think twice, especially after the A.J. Pierzynski deal and the Lincecum-For-Rios near-faisco.
Jonathan Sanchez, on the other hand, is above the league average in ERA and WHIP. He could probably be replaced by a AAA pitcher or a top prospect like Bumgarner, and the Giants wouldn't suffer than greatly. Jonathan could be valuable as a reliever, even if he was eventually replaced in the rotation by Bumgarner or Pucetas). But if the Giants could get a bat with him, even if it's a flawed one, it might be worth it.
San Francisco's glory years were highlighted by great hitters, as well as solid pitching. But the two most recent World Series teams featured fearsome pairs of power hitters (Will Clark and Kevin Mitchell in 1989, and Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent in 2002). Instead of intimidating power hitters, the 2009 Giants have the potential for a dominant rotation. Unlike Sanchez, Cain could potentially play a signinficant role in that rotation.
Not many third or fourth starters on any rotation in the league can match Cain's stuff, and Matt is young enough to not only contribute in 2009 along-side Lincecum, but in the future with Bumgarner and Alderson. Cain may not be a super-star, but he should still have a firm place in the Giants' rotation, not on the trading block.
Although Randy Johnson has pitched after Tim Lincecum for most of the season, Cain has proven to be the true number-two starter for the Giants in 2009.
Despite his gaudy record this year, Cain has traditionally been a poster-boy for why the Giants need more hitting. He lost two-thirds of his decisions from 2007 to 2008. In 2007, he endured sixteen losses despite an ERA that would have ranked him as the top pitcher on half of the team in the major leagues.
This year, Cain has had increased run support, but has also posted a career-low in ERA. In fact, his ERA of 2.55 is fourth in the National League, slightly ahead of the 2.66 Lincecum has posted.
Cain is tied with Chad Billingsley for the N.L. wins lead (Matt has started one fewer game than Chad and has two fewer losses), and although he won't threaten for the strikeout crown like Lincecum will, Matt has K'd a respectable sixty-eight on the season, good enough for fifteenth in the National League. His WHIP of 1.28 also ranks fifteenth.
Cain has had issues with walks, which helps to account for his high Opponent's On Base Percentage (.331 - a career high). And his Opponent's Batting Average (.254) is at a career high as well But his pitches per inning in 2009 (16.1) is at career low. However, Matt is still estimated to have a value of $4.6 million so far this season, on pace for around $14-15 million. By comparison, Lincecum's Cy Young season was valued at around $32 million.
So does this mean that Cain is half the pitcher Lincecum is? Maybe, since Lincecum's strikeout-to-walk ratio has increased from around three last season to around four this year, while some of Cain's important stats have become worse over the last few years.
For a stats perspective, it looks like Cain is getting somewhat lucky this season (not that he doesn't deserve it after the last few years he's endured), and might have peaked as a player. But that doesn't mean he isn't valuable to the organization, and should be traded for a thirty-something bat.
Even if the temptation is there to trade for hitting to stay in the Wild Card, it would be a mistake to get rid of Cain for a bat, even though Matt would command much more than Jonathan Sanchez. With Cain out of the rotation, an inexperienced pitcher (Kevin Pucetas?) or a pitcher not deemed to be worthy of a spot at the beginning of the season could be promoted into the major league rotation. This might negate the effect of a big bat, who could be walked anyway.
The odds of Pucetas or even Madison Bumgarner replacing Cain's production this season are not large. Bumgarner, who is more talented than Pucetas and has the potential to surpass Cain's production within a year or two in the big leagues, has never pitched beyond the AA level.
David Price provided a precedent last year for rapid promotion of a pitcher into a pressure situation, but Price was a college pitcher, and was used in relief. This year, he started the season in AAA before hearing the call to start at the big league level. Even Lincecum, after rocketing through the minors, had an ERA around 4.00 in his first season in the big leagues. Bumgarner will be twenty in August, two years younger than Price.
Next year, Randy Johnson will no longer be in the rotation and, unfortunately, Noah Lowry's injury-marred tenure with the Giants appears to be over. Tim Alderson and Bumgarner will eventually fill those two slots in the rotation, but a Cain trade would break a future rotation in which Matt would potentially be fourth.
The best Cain trade scenarios for the Giants might be to acquire two decent major league hitters (hopefully with power) or two or more prospects (one hitting, one pitching). But this assumes that Cain is being sold at his peak value. If Cain doesn't decline over the next few years, there's little reason not to keep him while he's signed fairly cheaply. In 2007, the Giants believed enough in Cain to sign him to an extension. Unless the deal is decidedly in the Giants' favor, Brian Sabean should think twice, especially after the A.J. Pierzynski deal and the Lincecum-For-Rios near-faisco.
Jonathan Sanchez, on the other hand, is above the league average in ERA and WHIP. He could probably be replaced by a AAA pitcher or a top prospect like Bumgarner, and the Giants wouldn't suffer than greatly. Jonathan could be valuable as a reliever, even if he was eventually replaced in the rotation by Bumgarner or Pucetas). But if the Giants could get a bat with him, even if it's a flawed one, it might be worth it.
San Francisco's glory years were highlighted by great hitters, as well as solid pitching. But the two most recent World Series teams featured fearsome pairs of power hitters (Will Clark and Kevin Mitchell in 1989, and Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent in 2002). Instead of intimidating power hitters, the 2009 Giants have the potential for a dominant rotation. Unlike Sanchez, Cain could potentially play a signinficant role in that rotation.
Not many third or fourth starters on any rotation in the league can match Cain's stuff, and Matt is young enough to not only contribute in 2009 along-side Lincecum, but in the future with Bumgarner and Alderson. Cain may not be a super-star, but he should still have a firm place in the Giants' rotation, not on the trading block.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Golden State Warriors Draft Scenarios - Shooting Guards And Wings
The consensus among Golden State Warrior fans is clear: the 2009 off-season should be dedicated to finding a point guard. But top players at positions of need aren't automatically there to select, even for a top-three lottery team. Would the Warriors be willing to take the best player available at number seven, even if he wasn't a point guard?
Barring a trade, another shooting guard/wing is the last position the Warriors need more players at. But knowing the bust potential big men and the appetite for point guards, the Warriors will at least keeping some of the following players in the back of their minds on draft day.
Shooting Guards
Would Likely Require A Trade-Up
But Harden scored only ten, nine, and ten points in his last three games, two of which were postseason losses. In addition, while Harden increased his scoring and assists from his freshman year, his three point percent and overall field goal percent fell by approximately four hundreds of a percent. And his assist-to-turnover ratio remained at around 1.25, a number that is low considering his unselfishness.
Harden Highlights - James shows some his shooting touch, but the best clips are of Harden getting to the rim and finishing, sometimes through more than one defender.
Harden Workout (Sacramento) - As in the highlight mix, Harden's best moves seem to come when he finishes at the rim, but his shot looks good as well.
Would Be a Reach
On the season, Ellington shot over forty-one percent from three-point range, including a seven-for-eleven performance against Florida State.
But Ellington is even shorter than James Harden, and at around 200 pounds, is significantly lighter than Tyreke Evans. Ellington will sometimes slash his way to the hoop
Ellington highlights - Ellington showcases his ability to find space and create his own shot, even against top-level collegiate competition.
Others
Wings
Might Be Available To Tempt Don Nelson
DeMar could immediately help the Warriors' offensive rebounding, a very useful skill on a team that loves to shoot and then shoot some more, regardless of whether or not the shots are going in. DeRozan had four or more offensive rebounds in eight games last season, including thirteen in two road games against the Arizona schools and five against Boston College in the NCAA Tournament. His season field goal percentage of over fifty-two percent shows that DeMar can pick his shots and execute them at a high rate.
DeRozan's explosiveness would help the fast break of the Warriors become even more deadly, and he would help immensely if Corey Maggette was eventually traded. DeMar is the ultimate "upside" pick of the 2009 draft, regardless of position.
However, the reason that DeRozan is all about "upside" rather than "NBA-readiness" is that his game has some serious holes. DeRozan is an awful three-point shooter (around fifteen percent), and his season-high in assists was four.
DeRozan Highlights - Mostly shows DeMar on the break, especially dunking in transition. Also watch a mix from DemMar's high-school days (appropriately named "DeMar DeRozan can only dunk?"), which shows DeRozan's shooting touch from inside the arc.
DeRozan Workout - Warriors Draft Central
Opinions Vary Widely
1. Terrence Williams
Williams plays under control, despite the pace of the Louisville system he excelled in. His assist to-turnover ratio (2.15), would make quite a few guards happy. And his three-point percentage - once horrible - is now respectable (.385).
However, Williams is not a complete package yet. His overall field goal percentage (.431) is not great, and his free throw shooting (.581) is atrocious for player his size. These two factors help explain why Williams only averaged less than thirteen points per game.
Depending on which point guards are still available at eleven, Williams, Vince Carter, and Devin Harris would make an interesting trio, and perhaps Terrence's passing could help Yi grow his game.
If Williams falls to eighteen, Minnesota could try to pair Williams with DeMar DeRozan to form an incredibly athletic combo.
Any team in the fifteen-to-twenty range will likely look closely at Williams, and he will likely be compared to fellow wing Chase Budinger, as well as bigger true forwards such as James Johnson and Louisville team-mate Earl Clark.
Williams Highlights
Others
Barring a trade, another shooting guard/wing is the last position the Warriors need more players at. But knowing the bust potential big men and the appetite for point guards, the Warriors will at least keeping some of the following players in the back of their minds on draft day.
Shooting Guards
Would Likely Require A Trade-Up
- James Harden
- Could he fall to Golden State?
- What would Golden State's front office like/dislike about him?
But Harden scored only ten, nine, and ten points in his last three games, two of which were postseason losses. In addition, while Harden increased his scoring and assists from his freshman year, his three point percent and overall field goal percent fell by approximately four hundreds of a percent. And his assist-to-turnover ratio remained at around 1.25, a number that is low considering his unselfishness.
- Are other teams interested in him?
- Which current Warriors would he replicate/possibly take time away from?
- What is the likelihood of the Warriors drafting him?
Harden Highlights - James shows some his shooting touch, but the best clips are of Harden getting to the rim and finishing, sometimes through more than one defender.
Harden Workout (Sacramento) - As in the highlight mix, Harden's best moves seem to come when he finishes at the rim, but his shot looks good as well.
Would Be a Reach
- Wayne Ellington
- Will he available for Golden State to draft?
- What would Golden State's front office like/dislike about him?
On the season, Ellington shot over forty-one percent from three-point range, including a seven-for-eleven performance against Florida State.
But Ellington is even shorter than James Harden, and at around 200 pounds, is significantly lighter than Tyreke Evans. Ellington will sometimes slash his way to the hoop
- Are other teams interested in him?
- Which current Warriors would he replicate/possibly take time away from?
- What is the likelihood of the Warriors drafting him?
Ellington highlights - Ellington showcases his ability to find space and create his own shot, even against top-level collegiate competition.
Others
- Marcus Thornton - Thornton is solid free throw shooter, and averages around twenty points per game. But he is only six-foot-four, and averaged just 2.1 assists per game, barely offsetting his 1.8 turnovers.
- Dionte Christmas -Christmas not only has a great name, but he also has great shooting and even better free throw skills. But he lacks strength and dribbling skills to consistently go to basket, and easily picks up fouls on defense because of his lack of quickness.
- Jermaine Taylor - Averaged 26.2 points per game last season, but also averaged more turnovers than assists.
- Toney Douglas - Douglas is a solid defender, and averaged over twenty-one points per game. But he is more of a combo guard than a shooting guard, and at six-two, would be even smaller than Monta Ellis.
Wings
Might Be Available To Tempt Don Nelson
- DeMar DeRozan
- We he be available when Golden State picks?
- What would Golden State's front office like/dislike about him?
DeMar could immediately help the Warriors' offensive rebounding, a very useful skill on a team that loves to shoot and then shoot some more, regardless of whether or not the shots are going in. DeRozan had four or more offensive rebounds in eight games last season, including thirteen in two road games against the Arizona schools and five against Boston College in the NCAA Tournament. His season field goal percentage of over fifty-two percent shows that DeMar can pick his shots and execute them at a high rate.
DeRozan's explosiveness would help the fast break of the Warriors become even more deadly, and he would help immensely if Corey Maggette was eventually traded. DeMar is the ultimate "upside" pick of the 2009 draft, regardless of position.
However, the reason that DeRozan is all about "upside" rather than "NBA-readiness" is that his game has some serious holes. DeRozan is an awful three-point shooter (around fifteen percent), and his season-high in assists was four.
- Are other teams interested in him?
- Which current Warriors would he replicate/possibly take time away from?
- What is the likelihood of the Warriors drafting him?
DeRozan Highlights - Mostly shows DeMar on the break, especially dunking in transition. Also watch a mix from DemMar's high-school days (appropriately named "DeMar DeRozan can only dunk?"), which shows DeRozan's shooting touch from inside the arc.
DeRozan Workout - Warriors Draft Central
Opinions Vary Widely
1. Terrence Williams
- Could he fall to Golden State?
- What would Golden State's front office like/dislike about him?
Williams plays under control, despite the pace of the Louisville system he excelled in. His assist to-turnover ratio (2.15), would make quite a few guards happy. And his three-point percentage - once horrible - is now respectable (.385).
However, Williams is not a complete package yet. His overall field goal percentage (.431) is not great, and his free throw shooting (.581) is atrocious for player his size. These two factors help explain why Williams only averaged less than thirteen points per game.
- Are other teams interested in him?
Depending on which point guards are still available at eleven, Williams, Vince Carter, and Devin Harris would make an interesting trio, and perhaps Terrence's passing could help Yi grow his game.
If Williams falls to eighteen, Minnesota could try to pair Williams with DeMar DeRozan to form an incredibly athletic combo.
Any team in the fifteen-to-twenty range will likely look closely at Williams, and he will likely be compared to fellow wing Chase Budinger, as well as bigger true forwards such as James Johnson and Louisville team-mate Earl Clark.
- Which current Warriors would he replicate/possibly take time away from?
- What is the likelihood of the Warriors drafting him?
Williams Highlights
Others
- Chase Budinger - Budinger has size at over six-foot-seven, and is a balanced player who several game with fifteen or more points, eight or more rebounds, and five or more assists. He also shoots eighty-percent from the free-throw line.
But the streaky Budinger shot twelve-for-fifty in a four-game stretch this season, and settles for jump shots more than he should, even though he can drive and dunk. And even though Chase played with Jordan Hill and Nic Wise, his assist-to-turnover ratio was still not that much greater than one. - Gerald Henderson - Henderson is one of the most athletic guard-forwards in the draft, which would play well with the Warriors' front office. However, he is very streaky shooter (1-14 in Duke's Tournament loss to Villanova), makes only one-third of his three-point attempts, and barely dishes one assist per turnover.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Golden State Warriors 2009 Offseason: Draft Scenarios - Point Guards
For most Golden State Warriors fans, the seventh overall pick in the NBA Draft probably represents one of two things: a season that could have been much more successful - but was sabotaged by injuries, or a slide into mediocrity that began with the Jason Richardson trade and ended with the decision to not resign Baron Davis. But regardless of whether the Warriors are stuck in Lottery Limbo or are will be significantly better next season, the 2009 draft is still a crucial part of the team's off-season.
When it comes to the draft, Golden State has quite a few options, even if they commit to a single strategy. The 2009 draft is considered by many scouts to be fairly weak, and by the seventh pick, the top prospect at each position is likely to be gone (Although, for what it's worth, the last time the Warriors drafted in the seventh slot, they selected Chris Mullin).
Golden State needs to decide if they want a player that can contribute right away on possible playoff team, or if the franchise should take a player that might need more experience, but could turn out to be better down the road (such as Anthony Randolph).
Point guard is one the most important players on any team that expects to contend in the future. The latest point guard to show great value to his team was 2008 top pick Derrick Rose, who not only led Chicago to the playoffs, but had a memorable duel with Rajon Rondo in the Bulls' first round series. Many fans agree that point guard should be a priority in this draft, since the Warriors are a young team that tends to struggle with bad decisions. A true point guard would help cut down on turnovers (and bad shot selection), as well as allow Monta Ellis to shift to his natural Shooting Guard position. Thankfully, the Warriors will have the choice of several point guards, even at number seven overall.
Some of the players the Warriors will probably be most interested in include:
Would Require A Trade-Up
Rubio excelled in Europe, but he is still not a sure success at the NBA level. He also lacks the extreme athleticism of John Wall, next year's likely top point guard.
Bigger Is Better
Tyreke played an up-tempo style at Memphis, and in some games, it brought out the worst in him. He could become out-of-control and somewhat undisciplined, which is a problem the Warriors have been trying to correct in their young players. However, when focused, he can take his man off the dribble and get to the basket, as well as effectively pass to the open man.
Evans workout video (Sacramento)
Evans highlights (mostly of Tyreke slashing into the lane, although there are some dunks, assists, and steals as well)
Being in Ben Howland's system forced Holiday to focus on defense, which he proved to be fairly solid at. Holiday didn't seem to be able keep college defenders honest with his outside shooting. However, he says he wants to model his game after Chauncey Billups, and will look to pass first in the NBA.
The Warriors have shooters already, and Holliday seems to be a pass-first point guard. But he lacks some of the athleticism of Tyreke Evans, and his struggles in college could cause the Warriors to take another player (as would Sacramento taking him at number four).
Holiday workout video (Sacramento)
Holiday Highlights (Jrue displays some touch from inside the arc, and shows his passing and finishing skills)
Size Isn't Everything
His height is a minus, but Jonny's ability to both pass and score would make him an intriguing possibility. Flynn has been steadily rising up most draft boards throughout the season, and taking him at seven doesn't sound like nearly as much of a reach as it would have a few months ago.
Flynn Highlights
Flynn Workout/Interview (Brandon Jennings also featured)
A major concern is Jennings' height and weight. At around six-foot and 170 pounds, Jennings would have problems guarding a bigger , stronger player such as Chauncey Billups, let alone a long player like Tyreke Evans. With Brandon at the point, and Monta Ellis at Shooting Guard, the Warriors would lose their height advantage in the front-court.
Another huge red flag with Jennings is his shooting. Especially bad is his three-point percentage, which hovered around twenty percent during his season in Italy.
If the Warriors were looking for a shorter point guard to contribute immediately, Jonny Flynn might be the answer. But Jennings has a chance to be the perfect fast-break partner for Monta Ellis, as well as a facilitator in the half-court. He might take longer to develop, and the potential is there for Brandon's erratic play to earn him a spot on Don Nelson's bench longer than he deserves.
Jennings pouring in sixty-three points in high school (See Jonny Flynn above for Warriors workout)
The Sharp-Shooter
Curry is another high-risk, high-reward player, but is in many ways the opposite of Brandon Jennings. Curry is an incredible shooter, and has decent height for a point guard at six-foot-three. But his athleticism is suspect for an elite NBA point guard, something Jennings has an enormous amount of.
Jonny Flynn actually had a higher field goal percentage than Curry in 2008-2009 (although Curry was still a much better three-point shooter), and Flynn had an assist-to-turnover ratio of around two-to-one compared to Curry's 1.5-1.
However, even with a diminished supporting cast, Curry put on a show against a very tall and talented Oklahoma team, collecting forty-four points. Although his three-point shot wasn't falling, Curry shot fourteen free throws and made them all.
Stephen is a clutch player, and would see plenty of open looks, but Don Nelson would no doubt want an athletic guard to run with Monta. Besides, on a team with Kelenna Azuibuike and Anthony Morrow riding the bench for long stretches, Curry's talents might be wasted in Golden State.
Curry Highlights
Others
Golden State does not own a 2009 second-round pick (it was traded to the Suns in 2005 as part of the Zarko Cabarkapa deal, and is now owned by San Antonio). This is unfortunate, because they might have been able to find a potential backup point guard that fell through the cracks (Darren Collison), a scrappy, sharp-shooting two-guard (Dionte Christmas), or a decent big man (Taj Gibson).
Maybe Portland would be willing to sell or cheaply trade one of its four second-rounders, although the Blazers seem to like collecting draft picks almost much as they like acquiring young talent on draft day. In fact some of them might be bundled in a trade similar to the (apparently dead) Sergio Rodriguez deal. But the opportunity might be there for the Warriors to cheaply grab a player that they like more than other teams.
Portland would be an intriguing trade partner if the Warriors decided to move down in the draft. Rumors (and that's all anyone has before the draft) indicate that the both the Knicks and the Blazers want Stephen Curry.
For the Warriors, being in the seventh spot could turn out to be a huge advantage, since by coincidence Golden State is drafting one spot above the Knicks this year.
Curry has said he wants to play for New York. New York has said they want Curry. If the Blazers traded up to seventh overall, they would have considerable leverage on the Knicks, which they could parlay into picks, players, 2010 expiring contracts, or a combination of the three.
The Warriors would receive either Rodriguez or (less ideally) Jerryd Bayless. Bayless is a better scorer, but Rodriguez would have a chance to be the facilitating point guard the Warriors were seeking in this draft. Golden State could possibly also get a useful high-second-round pick, in addition to Portland's late first-rounder.
Whether they pull off a draft-day trade or stick with their current pick, Golden State should improve their team. Whether that improvement comes in the right area will go a long way in determining whether or not the rookie(s) will be successfully integrated into the 2009 incarnation of the Warriors.
Drafting a point guard, especially one with ability to score and pass, could raise the games of an entire lineup. Young point guards tend to be bit erratic, but they can also create opportunities that a team of pure shooters often cannot. If they end up with the right point guard, the Warriors could find themselves in the playoff hunt much sooner than anticipated.
When it comes to the draft, Golden State has quite a few options, even if they commit to a single strategy. The 2009 draft is considered by many scouts to be fairly weak, and by the seventh pick, the top prospect at each position is likely to be gone (Although, for what it's worth, the last time the Warriors drafted in the seventh slot, they selected Chris Mullin).
Golden State needs to decide if they want a player that can contribute right away on possible playoff team, or if the franchise should take a player that might need more experience, but could turn out to be better down the road (such as Anthony Randolph).
Point guard is one the most important players on any team that expects to contend in the future. The latest point guard to show great value to his team was 2008 top pick Derrick Rose, who not only led Chicago to the playoffs, but had a memorable duel with Rajon Rondo in the Bulls' first round series. Many fans agree that point guard should be a priority in this draft, since the Warriors are a young team that tends to struggle with bad decisions. A true point guard would help cut down on turnovers (and bad shot selection), as well as allow Monta Ellis to shift to his natural Shooting Guard position. Thankfully, the Warriors will have the choice of several point guards, even at number seven overall.
Some of the players the Warriors will probably be most interested in include:
Would Require A Trade-Up
- Ricky Rubio - Rubio will go no lower than fourth, and even that might require some explaining from the Memphis and Oklahoma City front offices. That is, if a team doesn't trade up to grab him.
Rubio excelled in Europe, but he is still not a sure success at the NBA level. He also lacks the extreme athleticism of John Wall, next year's likely top point guard.
Bigger Is Better
- Tyreke Evans - Even Evans is going above number seven in several mock drafts, often to the Minnesota Timberwolves right before Golden State picks. And a six-five combo guard is exactly what the Warriors need, right? But Evans' struggles at shooting guard and ability to play the point in college suggest that he could become a force on both the offensive and defensive end by creating mismatches with his size at the point.
Tyreke played an up-tempo style at Memphis, and in some games, it brought out the worst in him. He could become out-of-control and somewhat undisciplined, which is a problem the Warriors have been trying to correct in their young players. However, when focused, he can take his man off the dribble and get to the basket, as well as effectively pass to the open man.
Evans workout video (Sacramento)
Evans highlights (mostly of Tyreke slashing into the lane, although there are some dunks, assists, and steals as well)
- Jrue Holiday- Holiday is a bit of an enigma. Some love his height (six-four), but unlike Evans, he didn't seem comfortable during his freshman year in college. To be fair, Darren Collison (who could be a steal in the second round) was the real distributor at UCLA, and Holiday was difficult to evaluate when playing an unnatural position.
Being in Ben Howland's system forced Holiday to focus on defense, which he proved to be fairly solid at. Holiday didn't seem to be able keep college defenders honest with his outside shooting. However, he says he wants to model his game after Chauncey Billups, and will look to pass first in the NBA.
The Warriors have shooters already, and Holliday seems to be a pass-first point guard. But he lacks some of the athleticism of Tyreke Evans, and his struggles in college could cause the Warriors to take another player (as would Sacramento taking him at number four).
Holiday workout video (Sacramento)
Holiday Highlights (Jrue displays some touch from inside the arc, and shows his passing and finishing skills)
Size Isn't Everything
- Jonny Flynn- Flynn is undersized, but another draft cliche also applies to him: scrappy. His high-flying dunks and end-to-end speed, combined with his quickness of the dribble made him difficult to guard in college. His performance against UConn (sixty-seven minutes played, thirty-four points, eleven assists, six steals, sixteen of sixteen free-throws) demonstrated his toughness and desire to attack the rim.
His height is a minus, but Jonny's ability to both pass and score would make him an intriguing possibility. Flynn has been steadily rising up most draft boards throughout the season, and taking him at seven doesn't sound like nearly as much of a reach as it would have a few months ago.
Flynn Highlights
Flynn Workout/Interview (Brandon Jennings also featured)
- Brandon Jennings- Like Rubio, Jennings played professionally in Europe last season. Jennings, an explosive athlete and dunker, was arguably the top recruit in the country when he decided not to sign with Arizona.
A major concern is Jennings' height and weight. At around six-foot and 170 pounds, Jennings would have problems guarding a bigger , stronger player such as Chauncey Billups, let alone a long player like Tyreke Evans. With Brandon at the point, and Monta Ellis at Shooting Guard, the Warriors would lose their height advantage in the front-court.
Another huge red flag with Jennings is his shooting. Especially bad is his three-point percentage, which hovered around twenty percent during his season in Italy.
If the Warriors were looking for a shorter point guard to contribute immediately, Jonny Flynn might be the answer. But Jennings has a chance to be the perfect fast-break partner for Monta Ellis, as well as a facilitator in the half-court. He might take longer to develop, and the potential is there for Brandon's erratic play to earn him a spot on Don Nelson's bench longer than he deserves.
Jennings pouring in sixty-three points in high school (See Jonny Flynn above for Warriors workout)
The Sharp-Shooter
- Stephen Curry- Shooting is definitely not a problem for Curry, whose father was a great NBA marksman. Stephen made his own legend, however, especially in the 2008 NCAA tournament, where he put in one of the best individual efforts of the past decade. But is he a true point guard?
Curry is another high-risk, high-reward player, but is in many ways the opposite of Brandon Jennings. Curry is an incredible shooter, and has decent height for a point guard at six-foot-three. But his athleticism is suspect for an elite NBA point guard, something Jennings has an enormous amount of.
Jonny Flynn actually had a higher field goal percentage than Curry in 2008-2009 (although Curry was still a much better three-point shooter), and Flynn had an assist-to-turnover ratio of around two-to-one compared to Curry's 1.5-1.
However, even with a diminished supporting cast, Curry put on a show against a very tall and talented Oklahoma team, collecting forty-four points. Although his three-point shot wasn't falling, Curry shot fourteen free throws and made them all.
Stephen is a clutch player, and would see plenty of open looks, but Don Nelson would no doubt want an athletic guard to run with Monta. Besides, on a team with Kelenna Azuibuike and Anthony Morrow riding the bench for long stretches, Curry's talents might be wasted in Golden State.
Curry Highlights
Others
- Jeff Teague - Teague is extremely athletic and shoots a very percentage from three. However, he only averaged 3.5 assists per game last year, with turning the ball over 3.4 times.
- Eric Maynor- Maynor will be nearly twenty-three by the end of next season. And despite having decent height at six-three, Eric weighs less than 170 pounds. If lack of weight is question mark with the extremely athletic Brandan Jennings, it makes Maynor too large of a reach at number seven.
- Ty Lawson - Lawson may be small, be has attributes that the Warriors would like in a point guard: speed and good passing skills (his assist-to-turnover ratio was nearly 3.5-1 last season). He was a deadly three-point shooter (over forty-seven percent), was effective in getting to the line and making free throws, and added a few steals per game as well (eight in the National Championship Game).
But Lawson should not be taken in the top ten for several reasons. He was injured frequently at UNC, and it was insinuated that he essentially took some games off by begging minor injuries. Whether or not this is true, the Warriors, coming off of a strange season of injuries, are unlikely to reach for a player that is even somewhat injury prone.
In addition, Lawson is shorter than six feet tall. While some small guards have survived or even thrived in the NBA, the Warriors would probably be better off with Flynn or Jennings if they were going to select a Lawson-height player.
Golden State does not own a 2009 second-round pick (it was traded to the Suns in 2005 as part of the Zarko Cabarkapa deal, and is now owned by San Antonio). This is unfortunate, because they might have been able to find a potential backup point guard that fell through the cracks (Darren Collison), a scrappy, sharp-shooting two-guard (Dionte Christmas), or a decent big man (Taj Gibson).
Maybe Portland would be willing to sell or cheaply trade one of its four second-rounders, although the Blazers seem to like collecting draft picks almost much as they like acquiring young talent on draft day. In fact some of them might be bundled in a trade similar to the (apparently dead) Sergio Rodriguez deal. But the opportunity might be there for the Warriors to cheaply grab a player that they like more than other teams.
Portland would be an intriguing trade partner if the Warriors decided to move down in the draft. Rumors (and that's all anyone has before the draft) indicate that the both the Knicks and the Blazers want Stephen Curry.
For the Warriors, being in the seventh spot could turn out to be a huge advantage, since by coincidence Golden State is drafting one spot above the Knicks this year.
Curry has said he wants to play for New York. New York has said they want Curry. If the Blazers traded up to seventh overall, they would have considerable leverage on the Knicks, which they could parlay into picks, players, 2010 expiring contracts, or a combination of the three.
The Warriors would receive either Rodriguez or (less ideally) Jerryd Bayless. Bayless is a better scorer, but Rodriguez would have a chance to be the facilitating point guard the Warriors were seeking in this draft. Golden State could possibly also get a useful high-second-round pick, in addition to Portland's late first-rounder.
Whether they pull off a draft-day trade or stick with their current pick, Golden State should improve their team. Whether that improvement comes in the right area will go a long way in determining whether or not the rookie(s) will be successfully integrated into the 2009 incarnation of the Warriors.
Drafting a point guard, especially one with ability to score and pass, could raise the games of an entire lineup. Young point guards tend to be bit erratic, but they can also create opportunities that a team of pure shooters often cannot. If they end up with the right point guard, the Warriors could find themselves in the playoff hunt much sooner than anticipated.
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Cleveland Cavaliers And Golden State Warriors: Trading Partners?
The Cleveland Cavaliers won sixty-six games in 2008-2009. The 2008-2009 Golden State Warriors won fewer than thirty.
The Cavaliers have a once-in-a-generation player coming off one of the best individual efforts in recent postseason history. The Warriors scored a monumental upset in 2007, then lost most of their players to free agency or trade (including Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Al Harrington, and -unfortunately for the Cavs and Warriors - Mickael Pietrus).
Why, then, would Cleveland consider trading with Golden State, and how could a trade be mutually beneficial?
Cleveland has plenty of contracts coming off the books, but also must re-sign Anderson Varejao, a key energy and rebounding player (and charge-taker).
According to ESPN, Varejao could ask for as much as ten million dollars per year, although some sites say the figure could be around eight million - at least three million dollars more than Anderson currently makes.
Fortunately for Cleveland, there are a few assets left, one of which is Ben Wallace's contract, which could either result in a buy-out or an all-important expiring deal.
The Cavs could try and use Wallace's contract to acquire a star like Chris Bosh. However, the Raptors are unlikely to make a trade that improves the best team in East. And it would take more than just a contract to acquire a top player. While the playoffs have elevated LeBron's game to a new level, it has decreased the trade value of almost all of his teammates.
And if Zydrunas Ilgauskas pick up his option for next season, which he indicated he will, there will only be the Mid-Level Exception to augment their roster.
And while an M.L.E. free agent like Chris Anderson would definitely help the Cavs, it's unlikely that they would make or break a championship run.
The Cavs could try to lure Antonio McDyess to Cleveland for the second straight year, and it might work this time, given the lack of success Detroit had after they trade Chauncey Billups. Or Cleveland could gamble on Jason Kidd giving a vintage playoff performance in pursuit of a ring.
But with Kevin Garnett returning to the Celtics, the Cavs might need more. And even with what is essentially the free acquisition of an all-star player, Boston apparently isn't resting this off-season.
Rumors of a Ray Allen-Rajon Rondo-for-Amare Stoudemire-Leandro Barbosa trade might increase Cleveland's chances of trading for more scoring. In an scoring arms race with Boston, several Warriors could greatly help take the burden off of LeBron's shoulders.
Even the Warriors that are perceived to have little trade value around league could be useful to the Cavs.
Stephen Jackson is thirty-one years old, but averaged over twenty points, five rebounds, and six assists this past season. He provided veteran leadership to one of the youngest teams in league in 2008-2009. And as a hybrid forward-guard, he can play multiple positions and create match-up problems with his height. In one five-game stretch this season, he recorded three games with thirty-plus points and ten-plus assists.
Jackson has tended to be undisciplined in his shot selection throughout his career. But he played a key support role on a championship team (the 2003 Spurs) by limiting his aggressive tendencies (which are certainly amplified by playing for Don Nelson). And when he was traded to the Warriors, he shed his past and became a team leader, helping to invigorate the squad that broke through to the playoffs.
Corey Maggette is another often undisciplined shooter who could still benefit the Cavs. He relentlessly attacks the basket and gets to the free throw line, something the Cavs as a team didn't do enough of against the Magic. He is also a solid free-throw shooter, and would certainly become more disciplined playing in a pressure situation with LeBron.
Maggette can also play guard and forward, and at six-foot-six, he could post up the opposing shooting guard and create a mismatch. Corey is not a good three-point shooter, but Pavlovic, Gibson and others could help pick up the slack outside. Maggette could also help pull wing defenders such as Pietrus off of the outside shooters by driving to the basket.
The Warriors defense has been rightfully maligned, but the Cavs acquired Mo Williams despite his lack of intensity on the defensive end (which picked up over the course of his first season with the Cavs). And Jackson has received at least a few props for his defense in the past.
Other than LeBron, the Cavaliers only have roughly nineteen million dollars in salary committed in 2010/2011. A max contract for LeBron would cost roughly 16.5 million, leaving plenty of room to absorb the contracts of Jackson and Maggette, while still signing another high-quality player.
The Cavs are the epitome of a "win now" team, and will need to keep pace with higher-scoring teams. If the Celtics would be willing to shop a star sharpshooter and their young, very talented starting point guard, the Cavs should be willing to take on two bad contracts for two more weapons on offensive.
And they'd only have to give up Wallace's contract and two players who contributed nothing to their last playoff run.
The trade would look something like this:
Cleveland receives: Corey Maggette, Stephen Jackson, Ronny Turiaf, 2009 1st round pick (#7 overall)
Golden State receives: Ben Wallace, J.J. Hickson, Trey Johnson, 2009 1st round pick (#30 overall)
The Cavs get Ronny Turiaf, an energetic big man who can rebound, block some shots, and make up for the possible loss of Varejao. In addition, the seventh pick could net Cleveland a Courtney Lee-type impact rookie (maybe Jrue Holiday?). Or the pick could be packaged in another deal.
The deal would also work if Monta Ellis or Andris Beidrins were substituted for either Maggette or Jackson, and Turiaf. Cleveland would likely also covet include incredible three-point shooter Anthony Morrow (and his small contract). However, Golden State would be unlikely to consider these trades, even if they kept their draft pick. The Warriors would probably be willing to part with Brandon Wright, but to make the salaries work, either Daniel Gibson or Delonte West would need be added by Cleveland.
Considering that the Cavs were willing to trade for Mo Williams' contract to gain approximately twenty points per game of scoring, acquiring almost forty points per game (plus rebounds) and a top-ten draft pick for the price of two Mo's doesn't seem like that bad of a deal.
The Warriors have an excess of scoring wings and a desire to dump salary, and the Cavs need a spark from someone who can take some of the pressure off of Lebron. A trade could help both teams accomplish their short-term goals.
The Cavaliers have a once-in-a-generation player coming off one of the best individual efforts in recent postseason history. The Warriors scored a monumental upset in 2007, then lost most of their players to free agency or trade (including Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Al Harrington, and -unfortunately for the Cavs and Warriors - Mickael Pietrus).
Why, then, would Cleveland consider trading with Golden State, and how could a trade be mutually beneficial?
Cleveland has plenty of contracts coming off the books, but also must re-sign Anderson Varejao, a key energy and rebounding player (and charge-taker).
According to ESPN, Varejao could ask for as much as ten million dollars per year, although some sites say the figure could be around eight million - at least three million dollars more than Anderson currently makes.
Fortunately for Cleveland, there are a few assets left, one of which is Ben Wallace's contract, which could either result in a buy-out or an all-important expiring deal.
The Cavs could try and use Wallace's contract to acquire a star like Chris Bosh. However, the Raptors are unlikely to make a trade that improves the best team in East. And it would take more than just a contract to acquire a top player. While the playoffs have elevated LeBron's game to a new level, it has decreased the trade value of almost all of his teammates.
And if Zydrunas Ilgauskas pick up his option for next season, which he indicated he will, there will only be the Mid-Level Exception to augment their roster.
And while an M.L.E. free agent like Chris Anderson would definitely help the Cavs, it's unlikely that they would make or break a championship run.
The Cavs could try to lure Antonio McDyess to Cleveland for the second straight year, and it might work this time, given the lack of success Detroit had after they trade Chauncey Billups. Or Cleveland could gamble on Jason Kidd giving a vintage playoff performance in pursuit of a ring.
But with Kevin Garnett returning to the Celtics, the Cavs might need more. And even with what is essentially the free acquisition of an all-star player, Boston apparently isn't resting this off-season.
Rumors of a Ray Allen-Rajon Rondo-for-Amare Stoudemire-Leandro Barbosa trade might increase Cleveland's chances of trading for more scoring. In an scoring arms race with Boston, several Warriors could greatly help take the burden off of LeBron's shoulders.
Even the Warriors that are perceived to have little trade value around league could be useful to the Cavs.
Stephen Jackson is thirty-one years old, but averaged over twenty points, five rebounds, and six assists this past season. He provided veteran leadership to one of the youngest teams in league in 2008-2009. And as a hybrid forward-guard, he can play multiple positions and create match-up problems with his height. In one five-game stretch this season, he recorded three games with thirty-plus points and ten-plus assists.
Jackson has tended to be undisciplined in his shot selection throughout his career. But he played a key support role on a championship team (the 2003 Spurs) by limiting his aggressive tendencies (which are certainly amplified by playing for Don Nelson). And when he was traded to the Warriors, he shed his past and became a team leader, helping to invigorate the squad that broke through to the playoffs.
Corey Maggette is another often undisciplined shooter who could still benefit the Cavs. He relentlessly attacks the basket and gets to the free throw line, something the Cavs as a team didn't do enough of against the Magic. He is also a solid free-throw shooter, and would certainly become more disciplined playing in a pressure situation with LeBron.
Maggette can also play guard and forward, and at six-foot-six, he could post up the opposing shooting guard and create a mismatch. Corey is not a good three-point shooter, but Pavlovic, Gibson and others could help pick up the slack outside. Maggette could also help pull wing defenders such as Pietrus off of the outside shooters by driving to the basket.
The Warriors defense has been rightfully maligned, but the Cavs acquired Mo Williams despite his lack of intensity on the defensive end (which picked up over the course of his first season with the Cavs). And Jackson has received at least a few props for his defense in the past.
Other than LeBron, the Cavaliers only have roughly nineteen million dollars in salary committed in 2010/2011. A max contract for LeBron would cost roughly 16.5 million, leaving plenty of room to absorb the contracts of Jackson and Maggette, while still signing another high-quality player.
The Cavs are the epitome of a "win now" team, and will need to keep pace with higher-scoring teams. If the Celtics would be willing to shop a star sharpshooter and their young, very talented starting point guard, the Cavs should be willing to take on two bad contracts for two more weapons on offensive.
And they'd only have to give up Wallace's contract and two players who contributed nothing to their last playoff run.
The trade would look something like this:
Cleveland receives: Corey Maggette, Stephen Jackson, Ronny Turiaf, 2009 1st round pick (#7 overall)
Golden State receives: Ben Wallace, J.J. Hickson, Trey Johnson, 2009 1st round pick (#30 overall)
The Cavs get Ronny Turiaf, an energetic big man who can rebound, block some shots, and make up for the possible loss of Varejao. In addition, the seventh pick could net Cleveland a Courtney Lee-type impact rookie (maybe Jrue Holiday?). Or the pick could be packaged in another deal.
The deal would also work if Monta Ellis or Andris Beidrins were substituted for either Maggette or Jackson, and Turiaf. Cleveland would likely also covet include incredible three-point shooter Anthony Morrow (and his small contract). However, Golden State would be unlikely to consider these trades, even if they kept their draft pick. The Warriors would probably be willing to part with Brandon Wright, but to make the salaries work, either Daniel Gibson or Delonte West would need be added by Cleveland.
Considering that the Cavs were willing to trade for Mo Williams' contract to gain approximately twenty points per game of scoring, acquiring almost forty points per game (plus rebounds) and a top-ten draft pick for the price of two Mo's doesn't seem like that bad of a deal.
The Warriors have an excess of scoring wings and a desire to dump salary, and the Cavs need a spark from someone who can take some of the pressure off of Lebron. A trade could help both teams accomplish their short-term goals.
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