Golden State Warriors 2009 Offseason: Draft Scenarios - Point Guards

For most Golden State Warriors fans, the seventh overall pick in the NBA Draft probably represents one of two things: a season that could have been much more successful - but was sabotaged by injuries, or a slide into mediocrity that began with the Jason Richardson trade and ended with the decision to not resign Baron Davis. But regardless of whether the Warriors are stuck in Lottery Limbo or are will be significantly better next season, the 2009 draft is still a crucial part of the team's off-season.

When it comes to the draft, Golden State has quite a few options, even if they commit to a single strategy. The 2009 draft is considered by many scouts to be fairly weak, and by the seventh pick, the top prospect at each position is likely to be gone (Although, for what it's worth, the last time the Warriors drafted in the seventh slot, they selected Chris Mullin).

Golden State needs to decide if they want a player that can contribute right away on possible playoff team, or if the franchise should take a player that might need more experience, but could turn out to be better down the road (such as Anthony Randolph).

Point guard is one the most important players on any team that expects to contend in the future. The latest point guard to show great value to his team was 2008 top pick Derrick Rose, who not only led Chicago to the playoffs, but had a memorable duel with Rajon Rondo in the Bulls' first round series. Many fans agree that point guard should be a priority in this draft, since the Warriors are a young team that tends to struggle with bad decisions. A true point guard would help cut down on turnovers (and bad shot selection), as well as allow Monta Ellis to shift to his natural Shooting Guard position. Thankfully, the Warriors will have the choice of several point guards, even at number seven overall.

Some of the players the Warriors will probably be most interested in include:

Would Require A Trade-Up

• Ricky Rubio - Rubio will go no lower than fourth, and even that might require some explaining from the Memphis and Oklahoma City front offices. That is, if a team doesn't trade up to grab him.

Rubio excelled in Europe, but he is still not a sure success at the NBA level. He also lacks the extreme athleticism of John Wall, next year's likely top point guard.

Bigger Is Better

• Tyreke Evans - Even Evans is going above number seven in several mock drafts, often to the Minnesota Timberwolves right before Golden State picks. And a six-five combo guard is exactly what the Warriors need, right? But Evans' struggles at shooting guard and ability to play the point in college suggest that he could become a force on both the offensive and defensive end by creating mismatches with his size at the point.

Tyreke played an up-tempo style at Memphis, and in some games, it brought out the worst in him. He could become out-of-control and somewhat undisciplined, which is a problem the Warriors have been trying to correct in their young players. However, when focused, he can take his man off the dribble and get to the basket, as well as effectively pass to the open man.

Evans workout video (Sacramento)

Evans highlights (mostly of Tyreke slashing into the lane, although there are some dunks, assists, and steals as well)

• Jrue Holiday- Holiday is a bit of an enigma. Some love his height (six-four), but unlike Evans, he didn't seem comfortable during his freshman year in college. To be fair, Darren Collison (who could be a steal in the second round) was the real distributor at UCLA, and Holiday was difficult to evaluate when playing an unnatural position.

Being in Ben Howland's system forced Holiday to focus on defense, which he proved to be fairly solid at. Holiday didn't seem to be able keep college defenders honest with his outside shooting. However, he says he wants to model his game after Chauncey Billups, and will look to pass first in the NBA.

The Warriors have shooters already, and Holliday seems to be a pass-first point guard. But he lacks some of the athleticism of Tyreke Evans, and his struggles in college could cause the Warriors to take another player (as would Sacramento taking him at number four).

Holiday workout video (Sacramento)

Holiday Highlights (Jrue displays some touch from inside the arc, and shows his passing and finishing skills)



Size Isn't Everything

• Jonny Flynn- Flynn is undersized, but another draft cliche also applies to him: scrappy. His high-flying dunks and end-to-end speed, combined with his quickness of the dribble made him difficult to guard in college. His performance against UConn (sixty-seven minutes played, thirty-four points, eleven assists, six steals, sixteen of sixteen free-throws) demonstrated his toughness and desire to attack the rim.

Flynn is long for his height (six-foot-four wingspan), and averaged 6.7 assists in 2008-2009. He, like Tyreke Evans and other guards that play at a fast pace, sometimes turned the ball over too much. But Flynn is a good passer, especially to the inside, and if he looked to pass rather than shoot (which he probably would on a shooter-heavy team like Golden State), he could be effective playing alongside Ellis.

His height is a minus, but Jonny's ability to both pass and score would make him an intriguing possibility. Flynn has been steadily rising up most draft boards throughout the season, and taking him at seven doesn't sound like nearly as much of a reach as it would have a few months ago.

Flynn Highlights

Flynn Workout/Interview (Brandon Jennings also featured)

• Brandon Jennings- Like Rubio, Jennings played professionally in Europe last season. Jennings, an explosive athlete and dunker, was arguably the top recruit in the country when he decided not to sign with Arizona.
  

Jennings, who might not be available at number seven, has supposedly matured in Europe, and has an unselfishness to go along with his athleticism (although some criticize him for trying to be too flashy too often - but what college freshman isn't occasionally too flashy?).

A major concern is Jennings' height and weight. At around six-foot and 170 pounds, Jennings would have problems guarding a bigger , stronger player such as Chauncey Billups, let alone a long player like Tyreke Evans. With Brandon at the point, and Monta Ellis at Shooting Guard, the Warriors would lose their height advantage in the front-court.

Another huge red flag with Jennings is his shooting. Especially bad is his three-point percentage, which hovered around twenty percent during his season in Italy.

If the Warriors were looking for a shorter point guard to contribute immediately, Jonny Flynn might be the answer. But Jennings has a chance to be the perfect fast-break partner for Monta Ellis, as well as a facilitator in the half-court. He might take longer to develop, and the potential is there for Brandon's erratic play to earn him a spot on Don Nelson's bench longer than he deserves.

Jennings pouring in sixty-three points in high school (See Jonny Flynn above for Warriors workout)

The Sharp-Shooter

• Stephen Curry- Shooting is definitely not a problem for Curry, whose father was a great NBA marksman. Stephen made his own legend, however, especially in the 2008 NCAA tournament, where he put in one of the best individual efforts of the past decade. But is he a true point guard?

Despite a huge amount of press and TV coverage, Curry is apparently one of the hardest players in the entire draft to evaluate, since scouts and fans' opinions of him vary widely. To some, who focus on his large number of turnovers and high shot volume, Curry is a slightly more creative version of Adam Morrsion or J.J. Reddick. To others, he is a point guard who is a deadly shooter, but only jacked up shot after shot because he was the only star on his team.

Curry is another high-risk, high-reward player, but is in many ways the opposite of Brandon Jennings. Curry is an incredible shooter, and has decent height for a point guard at six-foot-three. But his athleticism is suspect for an elite NBA point guard, something Jennings has an enormous amount of.

Jonny Flynn actually had a higher field goal percentage than Curry in 2008-2009 (although Curry was still a much better three-point shooter), and Flynn had an assist-to-turnover ratio of around two-to-one compared to Curry's 1.5-1.

However, even with a diminished supporting cast, Curry put on a show against a very tall and talented Oklahoma team, collecting forty-four points. Although his three-point shot wasn't falling, Curry shot fourteen free throws and made them all.

Stephen is a clutch player, and would see plenty of open looks, but Don Nelson would no doubt want an athletic guard to run with Monta. Besides, on a team with Kelenna Azuibuike and Anthony Morrow riding the bench for long stretches, Curry's talents might be wasted in Golden State.


Curry Highlights



Others

• Jeff Teague - Teague is extremely athletic and shoots a very percentage from three. However, he only averaged 3.5 assists per game last year, with turning the ball over 3.4 times.
• Eric Maynor- Maynor will be nearly twenty-three by the end of next season. And despite having decent height at six-three, Eric weighs less than 170 pounds. If lack of weight is question mark with the extremely athletic Brandan Jennings, it makes Maynor too large of a reach at number seven.
• Ty Lawson - Lawson may be small, be has attributes that the Warriors would like in a point guard: speed and good passing skills (his assist-to-turnover ratio was nearly 3.5-1 last season). He was a deadly three-point shooter (over forty-seven percent), was effective in getting to the line and making free throws, and added a few steals per game as well (eight in the National Championship Game).
  But Lawson should not be taken in the top ten for several reasons. He was injured frequently at UNC, and it was insinuated that he essentially took some games off by begging minor injuries. Whether or not this is true, the Warriors, coming off of a strange season of injuries, are unlikely to reach for a player that is even somewhat injury prone.
  In addition, Lawson is shorter than six feet tall. While some small guards have survived or even thrived in the NBA, the Warriors would probably be better off with Flynn or Jennings if they were going to select a Lawson-height player.
  

Golden State does not own a 2009 second-round pick (it was traded to the Suns in 2005 as part of the Zarko Cabarkapa deal, and is now owned by San Antonio). This is unfortunate, because they might have been able to find a potential backup point guard that fell through the cracks (Darren Collison), a scrappy, sharp-shooting two-guard (Dionte Christmas), or a decent big man (Taj Gibson).

Maybe Portland would be willing to sell or cheaply trade one of its four second-rounders, although the Blazers seem to like collecting draft picks almost much as they like acquiring young talent on draft day. In fact some of them might be bundled in a trade similar to the (apparently dead) Sergio Rodriguez deal. But the opportunity might be there for the Warriors to cheaply grab a player that they like more than other teams.

Portland would be an intriguing trade partner if the Warriors decided to move down in the draft. Rumors (and that's all anyone has before the draft) indicate that the both the Knicks and the Blazers want Stephen Curry.

For the Warriors, being in the seventh spot could turn out to be a huge advantage, since by coincidence Golden State is drafting one spot above the Knicks this year.

Curry has said he wants to play for New York. New York has said they want Curry. If the Blazers traded up to seventh overall, they would have considerable leverage on the Knicks, which they could parlay into picks, players, 2010 expiring contracts, or a combination of the three.

The Warriors would receive either Rodriguez or (less ideally) Jerryd Bayless. Bayless is a better scorer, but Rodriguez would have a chance to be the facilitating point guard the Warriors were seeking in this draft. Golden State could possibly also get a useful high-second-round pick, in addition to Portland's late first-rounder.

Whether they pull off a draft-day trade or stick with their current pick, Golden State should improve their team. Whether that improvement comes in the right area will go a long way in determining whether or not the rookie(s) will be successfully integrated into the 2009 incarnation of the Warriors.

Drafting a point guard, especially one with ability to score and pass, could raise the games of an entire lineup. Young point guards tend to be bit erratic, but they can also create opportunities that a team of pure shooters often cannot. If they end up with the right point guard, the Warriors could find themselves in the playoff hunt much sooner than anticipated.