Golden State Warriors Draft Scenarios - Shooting Guards And Wings

The consensus among Golden State Warrior fans is clear: the 2009 off-season should be dedicated to finding a point guard. But top players at positions of need aren't automatically there to select, even for a top-three lottery team. Would the Warriors be willing to take the best player available at number seven, even if he wasn't a point guard?

Barring a trade, another shooting guard/wing is the last position the Warriors need more players at. But knowing the bust potential big men and the appetite for point guards, the Warriors will at least keeping some of the following players in the back of their minds on draft day.

Shooting Guards


Would Likely Require A Trade-Up

1. James Harden

• Could he fall to Golden State?
  

Harden is expected to be a top-five pick. Even if both Memphis and Oklahoma City pass on both Harden and Ricky Rubio, James will likely drop no further than the Washington Wizards in the fifth spot.

• What would Golden State's front office like/dislike about him?

Don Nelson would no doubt love to a player with the scoring touch and court vision of Harden with the seventh pick. Harden is a rare rookie who could probably see a decent amount of minutes in Nelson's system, since he is considered by many scouts to be one of the most NBA ready. James averaged 5.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists to go with his more than twenty points per game last season.

But Harden scored only ten, nine, and ten points in his last three games, two of which were postseason losses. In addition, while Harden increased his scoring and assists from his freshman year, his three point percent and overall field goal percent fell by approximately four hundreds of a percent. And his assist-to-turnover ratio remained at around 1.25, a number that is low considering his unselfishness.

• Are other teams interested in him?
  

Any team that needs consistent shooting off the bench or in the starting lineup from the shooting guard position. However, if the Knicks were going to trade up, they would probably try and acquire Rubio with the third or fourth pick rather than take Harden.

• Which current Warriors would he replicate/possibly take time away from?

Harden would be useful in replacing some of Jamal Crawford's production if the latter opts out. But Anthony Morrow, who is a better shooter than Harden, has shown that he can easily go for twenty or more when needed. And if Marco Belinelli became tired of languishing on the bench last season, how would he react to Harden's selection?

• What is the likelihood of the Warriors drafting him?

As tempting as adding another consistent scorer to a team that scored 108.6 points per game sounds, Harden is unlikely to be taken by Golden State even if he falls, unless there is a team that wants him in a trade, or Golden State decides to go with the best player available, regardless of position. Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday can play the point, and would add height to the back-court, not diminish it.

Harden Highlights - James shows some his shooting touch, but the best clips are of Harden getting to the rim and finishing, sometimes through more than one defender.
Harden Workout (Sacramento) - As in the highlight mix, Harden's best moves seem to come when he finishes at the rim, but his shot looks good as well.


Would Be a Reach

1. Wayne Ellington
   

• Will he available for Golden State to draft?

Ellington is not considered to be a top-10-caliber pick.

• What would Golden State's front office like/dislike about him?

Ellington no doubt helped his stock greatly with his performance in the 2009 NCAA tournament. He was named the tournament's Most Outstanding Player, and showcased his natural shooting touch by scoring nineteen points in the National Championship Game. Ellington connected on seven of twelve field goal attempts, including both three-pointers. He also committed no turnovers, and pulled down four rebounds.

On the season, Ellington shot over forty-one percent from three-point range, including a seven-for-eleven performance against Florida State.

But Ellington is even shorter than James Harden, and at around 200 pounds, is significantly lighter than Tyreke Evans. Ellington will sometimes slash his way to the hoop

• Are other teams interested in him?

Ellington is a consensus non-lottery pick, although he might sneak in if the Suns like his pull-up jump-shot for their up-tempo system. The Bobcats, whose love for UNC products is well-documented, would probably be very happy to selected a more-athletic Adam Morrison who can contribute in more ways than Morrison did.

• Which current Warriors would he replicate/possibly take time away from?

Anthony Morrow is taller, an even better three-point shooter, and shoots nearly .1% better at the free-throw line.

• What is the likelihood of the Warriors drafting him?

Assuming they were going to draft a non-big man who doesn't run the point, the Warriors would likely draft a swingman if Harden was not on the board.


Ellington highlights - Ellington showcases his ability to find space and create his own shot, even against top-level collegiate competition.

Others

1. Marcus Thornton - Thornton is solid free throw shooter, and averages around twenty points per game. But he is only six-foot-four, and averaged just 2.1 assists per game, barely offsetting his 1.8 turnovers.
   
2. Dionte Christmas -Christmas not only has a great name, but he also has great shooting and even better free throw skills. But he lacks strength and dribbling skills to consistently go to basket, and easily picks up fouls on defense because of his lack of quickness.
   
3. Jermaine Taylor - Averaged 26.2 points per game last season, but also averaged more turnovers than assists.
   
4. Toney Douglas - Douglas is a solid defender, and averaged over twenty-one points per game. But he is more of a combo guard than a shooting guard, and at six-two, would be even smaller than Monta Ellis.
   

Wings

Might Be Available To Tempt Don Nelson

1. DeMar DeRozan
   

• We he be available when Golden State picks?

With other teams concentrating on point guards, DeRozan could potentially slip to the seventh slot or even farther. However, like Tyreke Evans, DeRozan could be pick one slot before Golden State by Minnesota.

• What would Golden State's front office like/dislike about him?

If DeRozan is available, it will take quite a bit of will-power from the Warrior's front office not to draft him. DeRozan is six-foot-seven, but some have compared his athleticism to that of Kobe Bryant and Vince Carter (although draft-related hyperbole usually peaks around this time of year).

DeMar could immediately help the Warriors' offensive rebounding, a very useful skill on a team that loves to shoot and then shoot some more, regardless of whether or not the shots are going in. DeRozan had four or more offensive rebounds in eight games last season, including thirteen in two road games against the Arizona schools and five against Boston College in the NCAA Tournament. His season field goal percentage of over fifty-two percent shows that DeMar can pick his shots and execute them at a high rate.

DeRozan's explosiveness would help the fast break of the Warriors become even more deadly, and he would help immensely if Corey Maggette was eventually traded. DeMar is the ultimate "upside" pick of the 2009 draft, regardless of position.

However, the reason that DeRozan is all about "upside" rather than "NBA-readiness" is that his game has some serious holes. DeRozan is an awful three-point shooter (around fifteen percent), and his season-high in assists was four.

• Are other teams interested in him?

The Timberwolves might want DeRozan as a replacement for the production and athleticism they traded away last year in O.J. Mayo (who, ironically, was the last one-and-done USC player). The Raptors see DeRozan as a potential Air Canada II, and would love for him to drop to ninth-overall.

• Which current Warriors would he replicate/possibly take time away from?

DeRozan would likely be stuck on the bench, where he would likely compete with Kelenna Azubuike. DeRozan's unwillingness to shoot threes might make him an upgrade over Corey Maggette in the eyes of some Warriors fans. But although DeRozan can get inside and finish, his free percentage is an awful sixty-five percent.

• What is the likelihood of the Warriors drafting him?

If the Warriors decide to dump Maggette's contract for Baron Davis or another point guard, DeRozan would probably worth the pick for his athleticism alone. But lack of a three-point shot and inexperience being anything else than a scorer might make DeRozan too large of a risk

DeRozan Highlights - Mostly shows DeMar on the break, especially dunking in transition. Also watch a mix from DemMar's high-school days (appropriately named "DeMar DeRozan can only dunk?"), which shows DeRozan's shooting touch from inside the arc.

DeRozan Workout - Warriors Draft Central


Opinions Vary Widely

1. Terrence Williams

• Could he fall to Golden State?

Willams is all over draft boards, usually in the late first round to the late lottery, but few have him in the top seven.

• What would Golden State's front office like/dislike about him?

Terrence Williams is six-foot-six, but can pass and rebound. He came close to a triple-double five times last season, and once was on pace for a quadruple-double. Don Nelson is probably already drawing up plays for Williams and Anthony Randolph to run together. A bonus for Warriors fans is the fact the Williams is a great defender, and not just for his size. He averaged over two steals per game in 2008-2009.

Williams plays under control, despite the pace of the Louisville system he excelled in. His assist to-turnover ratio (2.15), would make quite a few guards happy. And his three-point percentage - once horrible - is now respectable (.385).

However, Williams is not a complete package yet. His overall field goal percentage (.431) is not great, and his free throw shooting (.581) is atrocious for player his size. These two factors help explain why Williams only averaged less than thirteen points per game.

• Are other teams interested in him?

Phoenix could be interested in Williams, especially if a Shaq trade frees them up to run-and-gun again.

Depending on which point guards are still available at eleven, Williams, Vince Carter, and Devin Harris would make an interesting trio, and perhaps Terrence's passing could help Yi grow his game.

If Williams falls to eighteen, Minnesota could try to pair Williams with DeMar DeRozan to form an incredibly athletic combo.

Any team in the fifteen-to-twenty range will likely look closely at Williams, and he will likely be compared to fellow wing Chase Budinger, as well as bigger true forwards such as James Johnson and Louisville team-mate Earl Clark.

• Which current Warriors would he replicate/possibly take time away from?

Williams provides less scoring than Corey Maggette or Stephen Jackson, but he could be used to play the role of facilitator for the second unit, dishing out assists to Turiaf on the inside or Azubuike on the outside. He could even try playing the point, but would probably almost never be called on to score.

• What is the likelihood of the Warriors drafting him?

Despite a supposed guarantee given to Williams by Golden State, a tall point guard with handles and passing vision would duplicate much Williams' skill set while providing more scoring. Nonetheless, Williams is no doubt an intriguing possibility for Don Nelson to use a point-forward.

Williams Highlights


Others

1. Chase Budinger - Budinger has size at over six-foot-seven, and is a balanced player who several game with fifteen or more points, eight or more rebounds, and five or more assists. He also shoots eighty-percent from the free-throw line.
   
   But the streaky Budinger shot twelve-for-fifty in a four-game stretch this season, and settles for jump shots more than he should, even though he can drive and dunk. And even though Chase played with Jordan Hill and Nic Wise, his assist-to-turnover ratio was still not that much greater than one.
   
   
2. Gerald Henderson - Henderson is one of the most athletic guard-forwards in the draft, which would play well with the Warriors' front office. However, he is very streaky shooter (1-14 in Duke's Tournament loss to Villanova), makes only one-third of his three-point attempts, and barely dishes one assist per turnover.
   
   

Drafting a wing or pure shooting guard would like expose the Warriors' front-office to ridicule from irate fans. There are several standouts that could fall to the seventh spot, and if Golden State decided to trade down, they would at least consider a player such as Terrence Williams. But even if the pick had significant skill and athleticism, it would be difficult to justify passing on true facilitator.